The word from the Panjiva research team: global trade activity held steady again in July.  Specifically, there was a 0.2% increase in the number of global manufacturers shipping to the U.S. market, as well as a 0.5% increase in the number of U.S. companies receiving waterborne shipments from global manufacturers.

These days, macro indicators tell a muddled story about the trajectory of the U.S. economy.  Similarly, our data suggests that we’re holding steady but certainly doesn’t point to a robust recovery:

• The number of waterborne shipments coming into the U.S. experienced another 2% month-over-month increase from June to July.  While good news, it’s important to keep in mind that this month-over-month increase compares unfavorably to the 12% June-to-July increase in 2009 and the 8% June-to-July increase in 2008.
• The percentage of significant manufacturers on the Panjiva Watch List declined slightly from 16% to 15%.
• The percentage of significant buyers having done business with a Panjiva Watch List supplier in the preceding three months held steady at 23%.
• A final bit of good news:  for the past three months, there have been over 1 million shipments to the U.S. — a streak that we haven’t seen since October of 2008.

Methodological notes:

• Manufacturers that have suffered a 50% or greater decline in volume shipped to American customers in the most recent three month period, versus the same period a year ago, are on the Panjiva Watch List.
• “Significant manufacturers” are companies that have sent 10 or more shipments to American customers within the last year. As of the end of July , there were 93,911 significant manufacturers.
• “Significant buyers” are U.S. companies that have received 10 or more shipments from overseas manufacturers within the last year. As of the end of July, there were 80,898 significant buyers.

Over at Apparel Magazine, we’ve got a new opinion piece — There Isn’t a Next China: Now What?

We discuss the challenges created by rising prices in China and suggest that sourcing executives ask themselves four questions:

1) Can my sourcing organization regularly evaluate different regions and countries to evaluate whether they are suitable sourcing destinations?

2) Can my sourcing organization create short-lists of potential suppliers in any region or country?

3) Can my sourcing organization work with suppliers to drive process improvements that reduce the amount of labor required for each item we manufacture?

4) Can my sourcing organization do all these things — as well as all the traditional sourcing activities — with fewer people than ever before?

To read more, visit:

http://apparelmag.com/ME2/dirmod.asp?sid=&nm=&type=MultiPublishing&mod=PublishingTitles&mid=CD746117C0BB4828857A1831CE707DBE&tier=4&id=F4F80B43529848B999A38A60CB5697C8

When Steve Jobs unveiled Apple’s iPhone 4, he bragged about how much money software developers had made by creating Apps for the iPhone platform…  A staggering $1 Billion.  Indeed, a remarkable ecosystem has grown up around the iPhone platform.  But it’s not just software developers that comprise the iPhone ecosystem.  Apple’s supply chain partners play a crucial role, as do all the companies that make iPhone-related products.

We were curious to see how quickly an ecosystem would grow up around the iPad, so we took a look at shipments that included the word “iPad.”  See below for a graph of shipments of iPad-related products (iPad sleeve, iPad gummy crystal case, iPad screen shield, etc.).   9 in April, 20 in May, and 51 in June.  And Panjiva Search shows that there are more than 30 companies behind these products.

Apple fanboys should take note that these are NOT shipments of actual iPads.  Super-secretive Apple has figured out that they should call the iPads something other than iPads on shipping documents.  Nevertheless, the data serves as a dramatic illustration of just how quickly manufacturers are hopping on the iPad bandwagon.

By the way, for comparison’s sake, take a look at shipments of iPhone-related products:

The word from the Panjiva research team: global trade activity held steady in June.  Specifically, there was a 1% increase in the number of global manufacturers shipping to the U.S. market, as well as a 1% increase in the number of U.S. companies receiving waterborne shipments from global manufacturers.

The June data — together with fears about weak U.S. consumer spending, European debt, and rising input costs in China — leaves us feeling cautious about the months ahead.  However, there is good news:

• The percentage of significant manufacturers on the Panjiva Watch List declined slightly to 16% after remaining flat for 2 straight months.
• The percentage of significant buyers having done business with a Panjiva Watch List supplier in the preceding three months also declined slightly to 23%.
• The number of waterborne shipments coming into the U.S. saw a 2% month-over-month increase from May to June.  This compares favorably to 2% month-over-month decrease in 2009 and a 5% month-over-month decrease in 2008.
• The number of waterborne shipments coming into the U.S. saw a robust 26% year-over-year increase in June, although year-over-year comparisons continue to be a bit misleading, since global trade was struggling this time last year.

Methodological notes:

• Manufacturers that have suffered a 50% or greater decline in volume shipped to American customers in the most recent three month period, versus the same period a year ago, are on the Panjiva Watch List.
• “Significant manufacturers” are companies that have sent 10 or more shipments to American customers within the last year. As of the end of June, there were 92,616 significant manufacturers.
• “Significant buyers” are U.S. companies that have received 10 or more shipments from overseas manufacturers within the last year. As of the end of June, there were 80,155 significant buyers.

Over at Manufacturing.net, we’ve posted an opinion piece on where sourcing is headed as wage rates rise in China…

Spread The Word: There Isn’t A Next ‘China’

Prices of products made in China are rising. In the short term, this is bad news for consumers and businesses that buy products made in China (read: everyone). As a result, a lot of people in the manufacturing world are asking, “Where’s the ‘Next China?’”

The answer to this question is vitally important, but not particularly uplifting. Unfortunately, there is no “Next China.” Sourcing executives would do well to spread the word — and fast.

Read the rest.

The Panjiva team is getting ready for the 4th of July, and so we took a look at U.S. imports of fireworks.  Not surprisingly, it’s highly seasonal:

Global trade wonks will not be surprised to see that China is the dominant exporter.  But Fireworks.com reminds us that this is not just another example of China’s manufacturing dominance; after all, fireworks were invented in China.

When the Panjiva team watches fireworks this weekend, we’ll be thinking of global trade.  But we encourage the rest of you to just enjoy the moment.

The word from the Panjiva research team: in May, global trade activity increased noticeably.  Specifically, there was a 9% increase in the number of global manufacturers shipping to the U.S. market, as well as an 8% increase in the number of U.S. companies receiving waterborne shipments from global manufacturers.

The May data is a step in the right direction, but volatile financial markets in Europe and rising input costs in China warrant a conservative outlook when it comes to the sustainability of growth.  Note:

• The percentage of significant manufacturers on the Panjiva Watch List halted its 10-month streak of declines, leveling at 17%.
• The percentage of significant buyers having done business with a Panjiva Watch List supplier in the preceding three months also leveled at 24%
• The number of waterborne shipments coming into the U.S. saw a robust 21% year-over-year increase in May, although year-over-year comparisons are misleading since, as we’ve pointed out previously, global trade was a mess this time last year.

Methodological notes:

• Manufacturers that have suffered a 50% or greater decline in volume shipped to American customers in the most recent three month period, versus the same period a year ago, are on the Panjiva Watch List.
• “Significant manufacturers” are companies that have sent 10 or more shipments to American customers within the last year. As of the end of May, there were 91,104 significant manufacturers.
• “Significant buyers” are U.S. companies that have received 10 or more shipments from overseas manufacturers within the last year. As of the end of May, there were 78,762 significant buyers.

We’re getting World Cup fever at Panjiva.  So we took a look at shipments of soccer balls to the United States.  Sure enough, shipments surged in May:

Interestingly, there was a mini-surge in FIFA shipments as well over the last couple of months.  FIFA Cabernet, of all things, accounts for many of the shipments.

However, anyone hoping that soccer will one day be America’s national pastime should take note…  In May, the total number of shipments that included the names of sports were as follows:

• 362: Basketball
  
• 438: Soccer
  
• 548: Football
  
• 922: Baseball

The word from the Panjiva research team: global trade continues on a slow recovery path.  Specifically, there was a 3% increase in the number of global manufacturers shipping to the U.S. market, as well as a 2% increase in the number of U.S. companies receiving waterborne shipments from global manufacturers.

The April data confirms that global trade activity is heading in the right direction, but at a deliberate pace.  Positive indicators:

• The percentage of significant manufacturers on the Panjiva Watch List fell to its lowest level yet, down 1% from March to 17% this month.
• The percentage of significant buyers having done business with a Panjiva Watch List supplier in the preceding three months declined slightly from 25% to 24%.
• The number of waterborne shipments coming into the U.S. saw a healthy 11% year-over-year increase in April.

Again, year-over-year comparisons are a bit misleading, since global trade was a mess this time last year.  Also, it’s worth noting that the recent turmoil in global financial markets could jeopardize global trade’s nascent recovery.

Methodological notes:

• Manufacturers that have suffered a 50% or greater decline in volume shipped to American customers in the most recent three month period, versus the same period a year ago, are on the Panjiva Watch List.
• “Significant manufacturers” are companies that have sent 10 or more shipments to American customers within the last year. As of the end of April, there were 89,501 significant manufacturers.
• “Significant buyers” are U.S. companies that have received 10 or more shipments from overseas manufacturers within the last year. As of the end of April, there were 77,155 significant buyers.

The word from the Panjiva research team: global trade activity picked up slightly in March. Specifically, there was a 3% increase in the number of global manufacturers shipping to the U.S. market, as well as a 6% increase in the number of U.S. companies receiving waterborne shipments from global manufacturers.

Further evidence that cautious optimism is warranted:

• The percentage of significant manufacturers on the Panjiva Watch List fell to its lowest level yet, down 1% from February to 18% this month.
• The percentage of significant buyers having done business with a Panjiva Watch List supplier in the preceding three months declined further from 27% to 25%.
• The number of waterborne shipments coming into the U.S. in March increased 1% from February — and is up 15% year-over-year.

Bottom line: U.S. imports are following their seasonal path — and perhaps even growing a bit — suggesting that an economic recovery may be taking hold.

Methodological notes for the data junkies:

• Manufacturers that have suffered a 50% or greater decline in volume shipped to American customers in the most recent three month period, versus the same period a year ago, are on the Panjiva Watch List.
• “Significant manufacturers” are companies that have sent 10 or more shipments to American customers within the last year. As of the end of March , there were 88,921 significant manufacturers.
• “Significant buyers” are U.S. companies that have received 10 or more shipments from overseas manufacturers within the last year. As of the end of March , there were 76,724 significant buyers.