The word from Panjiva’s research team: June trade data looked a lot like May trade data. Specifically, between May and June, there was a 1% decline in the number of global manufacturers shipping to the U.S. market.
Similarly, the Panjiva Watch List numbers were unchanged:
- The percentage of significant manufacturers on the Panjiva Watch List remains at 30%.
- The percentage of significant buyers having done business with a Panjiva Watch List supplier in the preceding three months remains at 40%.
What to make of these numbers? The slight decline from May to June is slightly less than last year’s May-to-June decline (2%). Thus, it seems that global trade now appears to be tracking its typical seasonal path, albeit at a lower absolute level of activity. Feels a bit like the global economy is treading water.
Methodological notes for the data junkies:
- Manufacturers that have suffered a 50% or greater decline in volume shipped to American customers in the most recent three month period, versus the same period a year ago, are on the Panjiva Watch List.
- “Significant manufacturers” are companies that have sent 10 or more shipments to American customers within the last year. As of the end of June, there were 86,616 significant manufacturers.
- “Significant buyers” are companies that have received 10 or more shipments from overseas manufacturers within the last year. As of the end of June, there were 72,850 significant buyers.