The word from Panjiva’s research team: there was a significant uptick in trade activity during July.  Specifically, from June to July, there was a 7% increase in the number of global manufacturers shipping to the U.S. market.

Further reason for optimism:

• The percentage of significant manufacturers on the Panjiva Watch List declined slightly to 29%.

Pessimists, take note:

• Seasonality — Last year, from June 2008 to July 2008, there was a 6% increase in the number of global manufacturers shipping to the U.S. market, indicating that there may be a strong seasonal component to this year’s increase.
• Vulnerability — Last year’s increase preceded the free fall in global trade that unfolded from July of 2008 through February of 2009; if we were vulnerable to shocks this time last year, we’re even more so this year.
• Low absolute level of activity — The number of companies shipping to the U.S. is about 10% down from where we were this time last year.
• High absolute level of risk — The percentage of significant buyers having done business with a Panjiva Watch List supplier in the preceding three months remained steady at 40%.

Methodological notes for the data junkies:

• Manufacturers that have suffered a 50% or greater decline in volume shipped to American customers in the most recent three month period, versus the same period a year ago, are on the Panjiva Watch List.
• “Significant manufacturers” are companies that have sent 10 or more shipments to American customers within the last year.  As of the end of July, there were 86,570 significant manufacturers.
• “Significant buyers” are companies that have received 10 or more shipments from overseas manufacturers within the last year.  As of the end of July, there were 73,570 significant buyers.