2009 September |

August Trade Data: Global Economy Holding Steady

Josh Green | September 9, 2009

The word from Panjiva’s research team: global trade activity held steady in August. Specifically, from July to August, there was a 1% increase in the number of global manufacturers shipping to the U.S. market.

Panjiva August Trade Data

Reasons for optimism:

This year’s July-to-August increase compares favorably to numbers from 2008 (1% decrease) and 2007 (1% decrease)
The percentage of significant manufacturers on the Panjiva Watch List declined to 28% — down from 29% in July.
The percentage of significant buyers having done business with a Panjiva Watch List supplier in the preceding three months declined to 38% — down from 40% in July.
From July to August, there was a 1% increase in the number of U.S. companies receiving waterborne shipments from overseas.

As we look ahead, it’s worth remembering that September is when global trade fell off a cliff last year. For the remainder of 2009, there are three possible trajectories for global trade:

Cliff-diving — If we have a new shock to the financial system, look for global trade to go off a cliff for a second year in a row. Low probability (we hope).
Holiday surge — If retailers bet on strong consumer spending in the holiday season, look for global trade to surge in the months ahead. Anecdotal evidence suggests that corporate buyers are being cautious (better to be burned by having too little inventory than by having too much), so a holiday surge is unlikely.
Holding steady — Probably the best bet. Over the last several months, we’ve seen a slow but steady recovery of global trade activity. No reason to think we won’t see more of the same.

Of course, we’ll see soon enough. In the meantime, methodological notes for the data junkies:

Manufacturers that have suffered a 50% or greater decline in volume shipped to American customers in the most recent three month period, versus the same period a year ago, are on the Panjiva Watch List.
“Significant manufacturers” are companies that have sent 10 or more shipments to American customers within the last year. As of the end of August, there were 86,686 significant manufacturers.
“Significant buyers” are U.S. companies that have received 10 or more shipments from overseas manufacturers within the last year. As of the end of August, there were 73,683 significant buyers.

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onPanjiva: Round 1 Stats and Round 2 Dates

Josh Green | September 3, 2009

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The window for Round 1 onPanjiva nominations has closed, and we are now reviewing applications. In early October, we’ll announce the data sources that will be integrated into the Panjiva intelligence platform during the fourth quarter of 2009. In the meantime, I thought I’d share some stats. In the first six weeks of the onPanjiva program:

111 data providers were nominated
23 data providers submitted applications

onPanjiva Round 1 nominations came from several sources: Panjiva clients, industry experts, and data providers themselves. And, through this process, we’ve been introduced to an incredibly wide variety of data providers – organizations across different industries, of different sizes, and with different types of information.

So we’re happy to announce that the onPanjiva program will continue on a regular cycle, with applications to be reviewed in quarterly rounds. Between now and November 15th, you can nominate information providers you would like to see onPanjiva during the first quarter of 2010 – as part of onPanjiva Round 2. The first company to nominate an information provider that ultimately publishes its information onPanjiva will receive one-year’s worth of free access to information from this provider. And, of course, information providers can also nominate themselves for inclusion onPanjiva.