If the September decline in global trade is any indication, U.S. companies aren’t expecting many items to fly off the shelves this holiday season. However, it certainly seems that U.S. companies are betting that Swine Flu will turn hand sanitizer into a holiday hit.
On Monday, over lunch, I told apparel industry veterans of a random warning I received about the dangers of ingesting hand sanitizer. One of my lunchmates commented that he expected hand sanitizer to do quite well this year, thanks to the Swine Flu. So, of course, I asked our research team to take a look.
Sure enough, there’s been a massive spike in shipments of hand sanitizer to U.S. companies, suggesting that American companies think they may have a holiday hit on their, um, hands.
- In the third quarter of 2009, there were 128 waterborne “hand sanitizer” shipments to the United States — compared to 56 shipments in the third quarter of 2008.
- When analyzed on a weight basis, there was a threefold increase in the amount of hand sanitizer shipped in the third quarter of 2009 — compared to the third quarter of 2008.
We have wrapped up the first round of the onPanjiva program, and we are thrilled to announce that six new data sources will be available on the Panjiva intelligence platform by the end of 2009.
Over the course of six weeks, over 100 data sources were nominated for inclusion onPanjiva, and over 20 of these organizations applied to publish their data via the onPanjiva program. In consultation with clients and advisers, our team selected the following applicants for 4th quarter 2009 integration into the Panjiva intelligence platform:
- Customs Info, which compiles “denied parties” information from government sources
- D&B, which provides information on the financial health of companies
- Good Factories, which maintains profiles of furniture and home furnishings suppliers
- Made-By, which maintains profiles of suppliers that have a track record of social and environmental responsibility
- The American Apparel Producers’ Network, which maintains profiles of apparel suppliers in the Americas
- TriVista Sourcing, which provides on-demand audits of Chinese suppliers
These new data sources will appear on the Panjiva intelligence platform alongside data from existing Panjiva affiliates, including:
The onPanjiva program will continue on a regular cycle, with applications to be reviewed in quarterly rounds. Know of data sources that you’d like to see us integrate into the Panjiva intelligence platform during the first quarter of 2010? You can nominate these data sources between now and November 30th.
In the meantime, we’re getting to work on integrating the six new data sources named above.
The word from Panjiva’s research team: global trade activity declined in September. Specifically, from August to September, there was a 5% decline in the number of global manufacturers shipping to the U.S. market. Similarly, there was a 4% decline in the number of U.S. companies receiving waterborne shipments from global manufacturers.
These declines are the steepest we’ve seen since February, when global trade hit bottom, and would seem to confirm that American businesses have modest expectations for the coming holiday shopping season.
Pessimists will take note that it was last year’s August-September decline that marked the beginning of global trade’s six-month decline. However, we probably won’t see a repeat of last year’s global trade free-fall unless we get another macro shock to the financial system. (For an interesting perspective on where we may be headed, check out the SpendMatters blog.) A couple of positive items from our team’s latest analysis:
- The percentage of significant manufacturers on the Panjiva Watch List declined slightly from 28% to 27%.
- Similarly, the percentage of significant buyers having done business with a Panjiva Watch List supplier in the preceding three months declined slightly from 38% to 37%.
Methodological notes for the data junkies:
- Manufacturers that have suffered a 50% or greater decline in volume shipped to American customers in the most recent three month period, versus the same period a year ago, are on the Panjiva Watch List.
- “Significant manufacturers” are companies that have sent 10 or more shipments to American customers within the last year. As of the end of August, there were 86,663 significant manufacturers.
- “Significant buyers” are U.S. companies that have received 10 or more shipments from overseas manufacturers within the last year. As of the end of August, there were 73,904 significant buyers.
VentureBeat featured our thoughts on the importance of leveraging your team’s knowledge for risk management purposes. Excerpt below — full version available at VentureBeat
Senior executives across a wide variety of companies found themselves confronted with the threat of supplier bankruptcies – and the frustration of not knowing which specific suppliers were most at risk. As companies scrambled to enhance their risk management capabilities, there was a ravenous hunger for data. Specifically, we saw a sharp increase in demand for financial and operational data about suppliers. However, in my many conversations with senior executives, I repeatedly heard: “I have an army of people on the ground; surely they know where the risks are.”
Read the rest….