The word from the Panjiva research team: there was a not particularly surprising decline in global trade activity in November.
The bad news: from October to November, there was a 1% decline in the number of global manufacturers shipping to the U.S. market, as well as a 1% decline in the number of U.S. companies receiving waterborne shipments from global manufacturers.
The good news: the percentage of significant manufacturers on the Panjiva Watch List declined slightly from 26% to 25%; similarly, the percentage of significant buyers having done business with a Panjiva Watch List supplier in the preceding three months declined slightly from 36% to 35%.
The ominous news: there was a 9% decline in the actual number of shipments to the U.S. market. This echoes last year’s October-November decline of 7%. Of course, last winter — from November through February — an expected seasonal decline transformed into a precipitous fall-off as the global economy hit the skids. Let’s cross our fingers that the beginning of 2010 doesn’t feel the same as the beginning of 2009.
Methodological notes for the data junkies:
- Manufacturers that have suffered a 50% or greater decline in volume shipped to American customers in the most recent three month period, versus the same period a year ago, are on the Panjiva Watch List.
- “Significant manufacturers” are companies that have sent 10 or more shipments to American customers within the last year. As of the end of November, there were 85,916 significant manufacturers.
- “Significant buyers” are U.S. companies that have received 10 or more shipments from overseas manufacturers within the last year. As of the end of November, there were 74,022 significant buyers.