The word from the Panjiva research team: global trade activity declined in January. Specifically, there was a 5% decrease in the number of global manufacturers shipping to the U.S. market, as well as a 7% decrease in the number of U.S. companies receiving waterborne shipments from global manufacturers.
The decline in manufacturers from December to January is slightly less than last year’s December-to-January decline (6%), but more than the decline from December 2007 to January 2008 (-4%). Global trade appears to be tracking its typical seasonal path, though absolute level of global trade activity is still well below where we were before the 2009 recession.
Clearly, global trade is still vulnerable to shocks, but the news is not all negative. A couple of positive items from our team’s latest analysis:
- The percentage of significant manufacturers on the Panjiva Watch List declined slightly from 23% to 22%.
- Similarly, the percentage of significant buyers having done business with a Panjiva Watch List supplier in the preceding three months declined from 33% to 31%.
Methodological notes for the data junkies:
- Manufacturers that have suffered a 50% or greater decline in volume shipped to American customers in the most recent three month period, versus the same period a year ago, are on the Panjiva Watch List.
- “Significant manufacturers” are companies that have sent 10 or more shipments to American customers within the last year. As of the end of January, there were 87,396 significant manufacturers.
- “Significant buyers” are U.S. companies that have received 10 or more shipments from overseas manufacturers within the last year. As of the end of January, there were 75,307 significant buyers.
