The word from the Panjiva research team: global trade activity dropped slightly in February. Specifically, there was a 3% decrease in the number of global manufacturers shipping to the U.S. market, as well as a 4% decrease in the number of U.S. companies receiving waterborne shipments from global manufacturers.
Reasons for cautious optimism:
- The percentage of significant manufacturers on the Panjiva Watch List fell to its lowest level yet, from 22% in January to 19% this month.
- Similarly, the percentage of significant buyers having done business with a Panjiva Watch List supplier in the preceding three months declined from 31% to 27%, suggesting a lower absolute level of risk
- The number of waterborne shipments coming into the U.S. saw a healthy 20% year-over-year increase in February — the largest year-over-year increase since we began tracking year-over-year increases 19 months ago.
Of course, it should be noted that year-over-year comparison are somewhat misleading at the moment since global trade was in a free fall this time last year. Moreover, the absolute level of global trade activity remains well below where we were prior to the 2009 recession. Bottom line: we’re a lot better off than we were a year ago, but we still have a long way to go to reach “normal” trading activity.
Methodological notes for the data junkies:
- Manufacturers that have suffered a 50% or greater decline in volume shipped to American customers in the most recent three month period, versus the same period a year ago, are on the Panjiva Watch List.
- “Significant manufacturers” are companies that have sent 10 or more shipments to American customers within the last year. As of the end of February, there were 88,058 significant manufacturers.
- “Significant buyers” are U.S. companies that have received 10 or more shipments from overseas manufacturers within the last year. As of the end of February, there were 75,973 significant buyers.
