The word from the Panjiva research team: global trade activity held steady in June. Specifically, there was a 1% increase in the number of global manufacturers shipping to the U.S. market, as well as a 1% increase in the number of U.S. companies receiving waterborne shipments from global manufacturers.
The June data — together with fears about weak U.S. consumer spending, European debt, and rising input costs in China — leaves us feeling cautious about the months ahead. However, there is good news:
- The percentage of significant manufacturers on the Panjiva Watch List declined slightly to 16% after remaining flat for 2 straight months.
- The percentage of significant buyers having done business with a Panjiva Watch List supplier in the preceding three months also declined slightly to 23%.
- The number of waterborne shipments coming into the U.S. saw a 2% month-over-month increase from May to June. This compares favorably to 2% month-over-month decrease in 2009 and a 5% month-over-month decrease in 2008.
- The number of waterborne shipments coming into the U.S. saw a robust 26% year-over-year increase in June, although year-over-year comparisons continue to be a bit misleading, since global trade was struggling this time last year.
Methodological notes:
- Manufacturers that have suffered a 50% or greater decline in volume shipped to American customers in the most recent three month period, versus the same period a year ago, are on the Panjiva Watch List.
- “Significant manufacturers” are companies that have sent 10 or more shipments to American customers within the last year. As of the end of June, there were 92,616 significant manufacturers.
- “Significant buyers” are U.S. companies that have received 10 or more shipments from overseas manufacturers within the last year. As of the end of June, there were 80,155 significant buyers.
