November Trade Data: Seasonal Decline Continues

  • By Josh Green
  • · December 21, 2010
  • ·

The word from the Panjiva research team: we saw a seasonal decline in global trade activity in November.  Specifically, the number of waterborne shipments coming into the U.S. experienced a 2% month-over-month decrease from October to November.

On its surface, this looks better than previous year’s drops (6% in 2009, 7% in 2008, 5% in 2007).  However, the total drop from the peak month of August is 11% — slightly higher than the 9% that we’ve seen in each of the previous three years.

Interestingly, there was an increase in the number of global manufacturers shipping to the U.S. market, as well as an increase in the number of U.S. companies receiving waterborne shipments from global manufacturers.   It’s very possible that we’re simply seeing noise in the data  — but we’ll keep an eye on this in the months ahead to see if there’s a broadening in the number of companies engaged in global trade.


Additional notes:

  • The percentage of significant manufacturers on the Panjiva Watch List held steady at 17%.
  • The percentage of significant buyers having done business with a Panjiva Watch List supplier in the preceding three months also held steady at 24%.

Methodological notes:

  • Manufacturers that have suffered a 50% or greater decline in volume shipped to American customers in the most recent three month period, versus the same period a year ago, are on the Panjiva Watch List.
  • “Significant manufacturers” are companies that have sent 10 or more shipments to American customers within the last year. As of the end of November, there were 95,253 significant manufacturers.
  • “Significant buyers” are U.S. companies that have received 10 or more shipments from overseas manufacturers within the last year. As of the end of November, there were 81,691 significant buyers.

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