It’s scary to watch what’s happening in Thailand.  Though it’s hard to look beyond the human tragedy, we’ve been getting questions about the impact on supply chains — and so we took a look at the numbers.

Bob Ferrari has a good analysis of the effect on the computer industry.  Sure enough, Thailand ships the lion’s share of hard drives.  Take a look at the Trendspotting report on HTS code 8471704065 (“Hard magnetic disk drive units”).  Note:

• Through August, Thailand accounted for over 36% of U.S. hard drive imports.
• And, in fact, they’ve been gaining share.  Compared to a year ago, they’ve gained 2.1 points in market share.*

It’s not just that Thailand’s hard drive business is important to the computer industry.  This business is a crucial part of Thailand’s economy.  By dollar value, hard drives are Thailand’s biggest export category to the United States — about $1.5 billion to-date.

But it’s not just the high tech world that will be affected.  We took a look at vessel shipments coming out of Thailand into the U.S.  Here are a few of the commodity terms that appear most frequently:

• Rice: 52,891 shipments (~26% of all rice shipments coming into the U.S.)
• Shrimp: 46,097 shipments (~27% of all shrimp shipments coming into the U.S.)
• Coconut: 31,431 shipments (~32% of all coconut shipments coming into the U.S.)
• Furniture: 24,580 shipments (~10% of all furniture shipments coming into the U.S.)
• Pineapple: 23,209 shipments (~25% of all pineapple shipments coming into the U.S.)

The impact of the floods in Thailand will be felt by companies who sell or use these products  — because they will have to scramble for supply and likely pay higher prices — and also by consumers.

How big of an impact will we see?  Japan’s recent experience may provide some guide.  According to our analysis of Q2 data, in the wake of the tsunami Japan’s exports to the U.S. fell 7% on a year-over-year basis.  Sadly, poorer countries tend to be less resilient to natural disasters — because they have less resources to address the challenges that arise.

Thailand’s GDP is about 4% of Japan’s GDP.

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* Methodology on this…  We look at dollar value of U.S. imports for the most recent three months and compare it to the same period a year prior.  Note that, for those who aren’t Panjiva subscribers, you may not see in the public version of Trendspotting that Thailand is the country that’s gained 2.1 points in market share.

The latest Quarterly Trendspotting Report is now available!  The report contains a quantitative analysis of the macro trends shaping global trade during Q2.  This new initiative draws on Trendspotting, our intelligence tool which helps sourcing executives figure out which geographies are trending “hot” for the products they seek across the globe.

The report provides a clear view of how some of the most rapidly changing product categories performed relative to the same quarter one year prior.  It also provides a nice illustration of the link between world events and trade flows.  Note that, in Q2:

• Imports from Japan dropped the most in dollar terms versus the same quarter a year prior.
• Imports from Libya dropped the most in percentage terms versus the same quarter a year prior.

Enjoy.

The word from the Panjiva research team: we experienced a significant seasonal drop in global trade activity in September.  Specifically, the number of waterborne shipments coming into the U.S. experienced a 8% month-over-month decrease from August to September.  This is sharper than August-to-September declines of years past (-7% in 2010, -5% in 2009, -5% in 2008, and flat in 2007).

The number of global manufacturers shipping to the U.S. also fell 8% from August to September.  This too is sharper than previous years’ August-to-September declines: -6% in 2010,  -5% in 2009, -7% in 2008, and -4% in 2007.

Additional notes:

• The percentage of significant manufacturers on the Panjiva Watch List retreated slightly from 21% to 20%.
• The percentage of significant buyers having done business with a Panjiva Watch List supplier in the preceding three months also retreated from 29% to 28%.

Methodological notes:

• Manufacturers that have suffered a 50% or greater decline in volume shipped to American customers in the most recent three month period, versus the same period a year ago, are on the Panjiva Watch List.
• “Significant manufacturers” are companies that have sent 10 or more shipments to American customers within the last year. As of the end of September, there were 95,191 significant manufacturers.
• “Significant buyers” are U.S. companies that have received 10 or more shipments from overseas manufacturers within the last year. As of the end of September, there were 81,670 significant buyers.

This week, the U.S. Senate advanced three bills promoting free trade and passed another bill that could trigger a trade war.  Gotta give the Senate points for audacity, if not for consistency.

To be fair, there is a common thread — jobs.  Theoretically, trade deals with South Korea, Colombia, and Panama should open up new markets and create jobs.  And a change in Chinese currency policy would, according to most experts, make American goods more competitive in the global marketplace and increase Chinese demand for American goods — thereby creating jobs.

The problem is that all of these efforts ignore the big picture on trade with respect to jobs.

Specifically, the biggest opportunity for job creation in the realm of trade is through expansion of U.S. exports of services.  (Kudos to C. Fred Bergsten, an assistant Treasury secretary from 1977 to 1981, for making this point in a recent NYT op-ed.)  The best way to promote growth in services exports?  By helping U.S. service providers gain access  to the world’s important market — China.

In this sense, free trade agreements with South Korea and those two behemoths of global trade — Colombia and Panama — are nice-to-haves.  And, in fact, badgering the Chinese on currency likely moves us further away from the goal of increased market access, by inviting a protectionist response on the part of the Chinese.

Which brings us to part 2 of the big picture on trade with respect to jobs.  Trade wars are a well-known way to kill jobs.  Read this frightening write-up of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act — or just watch this clip from Ferris Bueller’s Day Off:

It’s not clear what, if anything, Congress can do to help U.S. service providers gain access to the Chinese market.  But, in the meantime, Congress should at least honor the Hippocratic maxim and abstain from doing harm.  Sadly, this week’s activity suggests that this may be too much to ask of the current Congress.