Data Analyses |

Chinese-made American flags

patrick | June 28, 2012

With July 4th around the corner — and Memorial day just a month ago — we’re right in the middle of flag-flying season. And if flag imports are any measure of patriotic fervor, this year seems to be a slightly weak one. In April 2012, the U.S. imported 1 million flags at a total cost of $310,000. That’s down from nearly 2 million flags, at $520,000, for the same month last year.

The yearly flag shipment cycle rises and falls with the early summer “patriotic” holidays, and March, April, and May are peak months for imports. Yet one trend remains stable month after month: nearly all of the Stars and Stripes the U.S. imports are manufactured in China. Since 2009, China has exported $9.9 million of American flags to the U.S., which is about 90% of a total of $11 million.

In April 2012, U.S. flag imports totaled $310,000, or 1.1 million units — all of which were from China. By comparison, American flag exports of the next two biggest suppliers, India and Taiwan, totaled just 51,000 units from January-April of this year. View Panjiva’s Trendspotting report for more on American flag imports.

Believe it or not, the U.S. also exports quite a few American flags. In March of this year, the U.S. exported over $140,000 of flags, which was the second highest total after September 2009. The top buyer of U.S. flags? Mexico, by an overwhelming measure. The country south of the border has imported $720,000 of American flags since 2009. View Panjiva’s Trendspotting report for more on American flag exports.

U.S. shale gas boom drives down prices

patrick | June 18, 2012

America is in the middle of a natural gas boom, due in part to explosive growth in the shale gas industry. News reports say that the spike in natural gas production is quickly filling domestic reserves and disrupting international energy flows as other countries line up to import it. Amid all the frenzy, one thing is certain: the cost of the abundant U.S.-produced gas has been dropping.

Panjiva’s data shows that the unit cost of U.S.-exported Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) has decreased by more than 50% since 2010. The average cost in Q1 of this year, $150 per cubic kilometer, was less than half the average cost in Q1 2010. See Panjiva’s trendspotting report here.

With shale gas production showing no signs of slowing, analysts predict that the cost of U.S.-exported gas should keep going south. But gas exports are heavily regulated, so Washington ultimately has to decide how much it allows to be exported. Meantime, importing countries and U.S. developers eagerly await the impact that the cheap U.S. gas will have on world energy markets. Track this trend in the months ahead with Panjiva’s Trendspotting.

What’s Driving U.S. Exports?

patrick | May 31, 2012

The U.S. exported nearly $140 billion in March, making the month the strongest ever for U.S. exports. Panjiva’s Trendspotting report shows that March 2012′s $139 billion in exports represented a 7% increase from March 2011 and was $3 billion higher than the next highest month, January 2011. So, what are the top products and countries of import that drove the increase in U.S. exports?

Civilian Aircraft
Civilian aircraft, engines, and parts were the top driver of U.S. exports in March 2012, together comprising over $8.5 billion. In dollar terms, aircraft exports increased 29% from March 2011 to March 2012. Japan and the UAE doubled spending on civilian aircraft imports from the U.S. — other top buyers included China and France. See Panjiva’s report here:

Oil
The U.S. exported $1.5 billion more in oil this March than last, which constituted a 36% increase. The top buyers of U.S. oil are the Netherlands, Mexico, Brazil, Singapore, and Peru. See Panjiva’s report here.

Cars and Trucks
Exports of motor vehicles jumped by 146%, from $216 million in March 2011 to $534 million in March 2012. The top importers were Germany, the United Kingdom, and Canada, each doubling imports of U.S. cars. See Panjiva’s report here.

Greece’s austerity experiment doesn’t apply to weapons?

patrick | May 17, 2012

Greece may be mired in economic depression, but that hasn’t slowed the country’s arms and ammunition imports. Panjiva’s data shows that Greece imported over $40 million of arms and ammunition from the U.S. in February 2012. Further, in Q1 2012 the country imported 3.6% more than the same period last year. So far it seems that Greece’s austerity experiment doesn’t apply to arms and ammunition. With talk of a possible Greek default and/or Euro zone exit, the country may opt to decrease the number of arms imports in the months ahead.

See more on Panjiva’s Trendspotting report.

 

Avenger Merchandise Could Indicate that IRON MAN is Top Avenger

katelyn | May 10, 2012

Updated: We revisited this data and discovered that in fact Iron Man (90 shipments), not Thor (86 shipments), was the character who had generated the most merchandise shipments between February and April.  We regret the error, but as a technical company we also find ourselves relieved that engineer-genius Tony Stark is the super hero of choice.

 

 

Increased Shipments Show Bunnies will be Back this Easter

katelyn | April 5, 2012

Panjiva has good news for those opening Easter baskets this Sunday. According to an analysis of U.S. customs shipment data, there was a 22 percent increase in shipments of “bunnies” this January, the month Easter items are shipped in order to make it to the U.S. in time to be packed into baskets. Shipments of bunnies, which include chocolates, toys and decor, steadily declined from 2009 to 2011, likely a result of the economic downturn and recession. However, with the economy hopping back on track, it should be safe to say that the Easter Bunny’s coming to town!

Leaping Leprechauns! Soaring Stout Shipments Indicate a Fun St. Patrick’s Day to Come

katelyn | March 16, 2012

Looks like some “cheers!” are in order!  According to the Panjiva research team, stout shipments are up once again this year, possibly hinting at a particularly festive March 17th. January and February shipments of the brew are at a record 609 – an increase of over 23% over last year’s 494 shipments and a whopping 185% increase over the 214 shipments in 2010.  Though the reasons behind the rising shipments could be attributed to several factors, one thing is for sure:  you won’t be going thirsty this St. Patrick’s Day.

December Trade Data: A Promising End to 2009

Josh Green | January 12, 2010

The word from the Panjiva research team: December was a surprisingly good month in the world of global trade.  Specifically, there was a 3% increase in the number of global manufacturers shipping to the U.S. market, as well as a 2% increase in the number of U.S. companies receiving waterborne shipments from global manufacturers. Traditionally, these numbers decline from November to December (-5% in 2008 and -1% in 2007).

December Increase in Global Trade.Panjiva

To add to the good news:

  • The percentage of significant manufacturers on the Panjiva Watch List declined from 25% to 23%
  • Similarly, the percentage of significant buyers having done business with a Panjiva Watch List supplier in the preceding three months declined slightly from 35% to 33%.
  • The number of waterborne shipments coming into the U.S. saw a 2% year-over-year increase in December — the first year-over-year increase since we began tracking year-over-year increases 18 months ago.

That said, year-over-year comparisons are going to be a bit misleading in the next few months — because, at this time last year, global trade was in free fall.  And the absolute level of global trade activity is still well below where we were before the 2009 recession.  So reports of a robust or sustained recovery are probably premature.  Nevertheless, it’s great to head into 2010 with the numbers heading in a positive direction.

Methodological notes for the data junkies:

  • Manufacturers that have suffered a 50% or greater decline in volume shipped to American customers in the most recent three month period, versus the same period a year ago, are on the Panjiva Watch List.
  • “Significant manufacturers” are companies that have sent 10 or more shipments to American customers within the last year.  As of the end of December, there were 86,794 significant manufacturers.
  • “Significant buyers” are U.S. companies that have received 10 or more shipments from overseas manufacturers within the last year.  As of the end of December, there were 74,963 significant buyers.

This Year’s Holiday Hit: Hand Sanitizer

Josh Green | October 21, 2009

If the September decline in global trade is any indication, U.S. companies aren’t expecting many items to fly off the shelves this holiday season.  However, it certainly seems that U.S. companies are betting that Swine Flu will turn hand sanitizer into a holiday hit.

Panjiva Analysis: Hand Sanitizer Is This Year's Holiday Hit

On Monday, over lunch, I told apparel industry veterans of a random warning I received about the dangers of ingesting hand sanitizer.  One of my lunchmates commented that he expected hand sanitizer to do quite well this year, thanks to the Swine Flu.  So, of course, I asked our research team to take a look.

Sure enough, there’s been a massive spike in shipments of hand sanitizer to U.S. companies, suggesting that American companies think they may have a holiday hit on their, um, hands.

Specifically:

  • In the third quarter of 2009, there were 128 waterborne “hand sanitizer” shipments to the United States — compared to 56 shipments in the third quarter of 2008.
  • When analyzed on a weight basis, there was a threefold increase in the amount of hand sanitizer shipped in the third quarter of 2009 — compared to the third quarter of 2008.

September Data: Global Trade Declines

Josh Green | October 14, 2009

The word from Panjiva’s research team: global trade activity declined in September.  Specifically, from August to September, there was a 5% decline in the number of global manufacturers shipping to the U.S. market. Similarly, there was a 4% decline in the number of U.S. companies receiving waterborne shipments from global manufacturers.

September Data - Global Trade Declines

These declines are the steepest we’ve seen since February, when global trade hit bottom, and would seem to confirm that American businesses have modest expectations for the coming holiday shopping season.

Pessimists will take note that it was last year’s August-September decline that marked the beginning of global trade’s six-month decline.  However, we probably won’t see a repeat of last year’s global trade free-fall unless we get another macro shock to the financial system.  (For an interesting perspective on where we may be headed, check out the SpendMatters blog.)  A couple of positive items from our team’s latest analysis:

  • The percentage of significant manufacturers on the Panjiva Watch List declined slightly from 28% to 27%.
  • Similarly, the percentage of significant buyers having done business with a Panjiva Watch List supplier in the preceding three months declined slightly from 38% to 37%.

Methodological notes for the data junkies:

  • Manufacturers that have suffered a 50% or greater decline in volume shipped to American customers in the most recent three month period, versus the same period a year ago, are on the Panjiva Watch List.
  • “Significant manufacturers” are companies that have sent 10 or more shipments to American customers within the last year.  As of the end of August, there were 86,663 significant manufacturers.
  • “Significant buyers” are U.S. companies that have received 10 or more shipments from overseas manufacturers within the last year.  As of the end of August, there were 73,904 significant buyers.
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