The 2012 drought has sunk corn harvests to record lows and revived discussion (and controversy) over ethanol. The EPA’s Renewable Fuel Standard requires that a portion of the corn harvest be used to produce ethanol, but some have called for the EPA to waive the quota due to this year’s drought.

A look at Panjiva’s data shows that ethanol exports reached an all-time high in early 2012. Furthermore, in the past two years US ethanol exports have tripled — from an average of about $100 million/quarter in 2010 to an average of over $300 million/quarter in 2012.

Most of the increase in exports is attributable to Brazil. The South American country also produces ethanol, though theirs is sugar-based. The increase in Brazilian corn-based ethanol imports from the U.S. beginning in 2011 occurred after a bump in world sugar prices. The other top importers of U.S. ethanol are the Netherlands, Mexico, and the U.K.

Panjiva will continue watching ethanol exports in the coming months to measure any impact from the summer drought.

The word from the Panjiva research team: trade activity experienced a dip in May.  Specifically, the number of waterborne shipments coming into the U.S. experienced a 2% month-over-month decline from April to May.  Previous year’s April to May changes were all positive: +8% in 2011, +12% in 2010, +2% in 2009, +3% in 2008. 

The number of global manufacturers shipping to the U.S. went up ever so slightly — +0.4% — from April to May.  April-to-May changes in previous years: +6% in 2011, +9% in 2010, +2% in 2009, and +3% in 2008.

Additional notes:

• The percentage of significant manufacturers on the Panjiva Watch List remained at 19%.
• The percentage of significant buyers having done business with a Panjiva Watch List supplier in the preceding three months remained at 25%.

Methodological notes:

• Manufacturers that have suffered a 50% or greater decline in volume shipped to American customers in the most recent three month period, versus the same period a year ago, are on the Panjiva Watch List.
• “Significant manufacturers” are companies that have sent 10 or more shipments to American customers within the last year.  As of the end of May, there were 95,374 significant manufacturers.
• “Significant buyers” are U.S. companies that have received 10 or more shipments from overseas manufacturers within the last year.  As of the end of May, there were 82,174 significant buyers.

The word from the Panjiva research team: trade activity experienced another healthy bump from March to April.  Specifically, the number of waterborne shipments coming into the U.S. experienced a 11% month-over-month increase from March to April.  Previous year’s March to April changes: +7% in 2011, +4% in 2010, +10% in 2009, +8% in 2008. 

The number of global manufacturers shipping to the U.S. also went up — 9% — from March to April.  March-to-April changes in previous years: +6% in 2011, +3% in 2010, +8% in 2009, and +3% in 2008.

Additional notes:

• The percentage of significant manufacturers on the Panjiva Watch List remained at 19%.
• The percentage of significant buyers having done business with a Panjiva Watch List supplier in the preceding three months dropped slightly to 25%.

Methodological notes:

• Manufacturers that have suffered a 50% or greater decline in volume shipped to American customers in the most recent three month period, versus the same period a year ago, are on the Panjiva Watch List.
• “Significant manufacturers” are companies that have sent 10 or more shipments to American customers within the last year.  As of the end of April, there were 94,095 significant manufacturers.
• “Significant buyers” are U.S. companies that have received 10 or more shipments from overseas manufacturers within the last year.  As of the end of April, there were 81,370 significant buyers.