The word from the Panjiva research team: we experienced a significant seasonal drop in global trade activity in September.  Specifically, the number of waterborne shipments coming into the U.S. experienced a 8% month-over-month decrease from August to September.  This is sharper than August-to-September declines of years past (-7% in 2010, -5% in 2009, -5% in 2008, and flat in 2007).

The number of global manufacturers shipping to the U.S. also fell 8% from August to September.  This too is sharper than previous years’ August-to-September declines: -6% in 2010,  -5% in 2009, -7% in 2008, and -4% in 2007.

Additional notes:

• The percentage of significant manufacturers on the Panjiva Watch List retreated slightly from 21% to 20%.
• The percentage of significant buyers having done business with a Panjiva Watch List supplier in the preceding three months also retreated from 29% to 28%.

Methodological notes:

• Manufacturers that have suffered a 50% or greater decline in volume shipped to American customers in the most recent three month period, versus the same period a year ago, are on the Panjiva Watch List.
• “Significant manufacturers” are companies that have sent 10 or more shipments to American customers within the last year. As of the end of September, there were 95,191 significant manufacturers.
• “Significant buyers” are U.S. companies that have received 10 or more shipments from overseas manufacturers within the last year. As of the end of September, there were 81,670 significant buyers.

This week, the U.S. Senate advanced three bills promoting free trade and passed another bill that could trigger a trade war.  Gotta give the Senate points for audacity, if not for consistency.

To be fair, there is a common thread — jobs.  Theoretically, trade deals with South Korea, Colombia, and Panama should open up new markets and create jobs.  And a change in Chinese currency policy would, according to most experts, make American goods more competitive in the global marketplace and increase Chinese demand for American goods — thereby creating jobs.

The problem is that all of these efforts ignore the big picture on trade with respect to jobs.

Specifically, the biggest opportunity for job creation in the realm of trade is through expansion of U.S. exports of services.  (Kudos to C. Fred Bergsten, an assistant Treasury secretary from 1977 to 1981, for making this point in a recent NYT op-ed.)  The best way to promote growth in services exports?  By helping U.S. service providers gain access  to the world’s important market — China.

In this sense, free trade agreements with South Korea and those two behemoths of global trade — Colombia and Panama — are nice-to-haves.  And, in fact, badgering the Chinese on currency likely moves us further away from the goal of increased market access, by inviting a protectionist response on the part of the Chinese.

Which brings us to part 2 of the big picture on trade with respect to jobs.  Trade wars are a well-known way to kill jobs.  Read this frightening write-up of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act — or just watch this clip from Ferris Bueller’s Day Off:

It’s not clear what, if anything, Congress can do to help U.S. service providers gain access to the Chinese market.  But, in the meantime, Congress should at least honor the Hippocratic maxim and abstain from doing harm.  Sadly, this week’s activity suggests that this may be too much to ask of the current Congress.

The word from the Panjiva research team: we experienced another seasonal increase in global trade activity in August.  Specifically, the number of waterborne shipments coming into the U.S. experienced a 4% month-over-month increase from July to August.

The number of global manufacturers shipping to the U.S. increased 2% from July to August.  This is roughly in line with previous years’ July-to-August changes: +1% in 2010,  +1% in 2009, -1% in 2008, and -1% in 2007.

Additional notes:

• The percentage of significant manufacturers on the Panjiva Watch List grew slightly from 20% to 21%.
• The percentage of significant buyers having done business with a Panjiva Watch List supplier in the preceding three months held steady at 29%.

Methodological notes:

• Manufacturers that have suffered a 50% or greater decline in volume shipped to American customers in the most recent three month period, versus the same period a year ago, are on the Panjiva Watch List.
• “Significant manufacturers” are companies that have sent 10 or more shipments to American customers within the last year. As of the end of August, there were 95,694 significant manufacturers.
• “Significant buyers” are U.S. companies that have received 10 or more shipments from overseas manufacturers within the last year. As of the end of August, there were 82,182 significant buyers.

The word from the Panjiva research team: we experienced a seasonal increase in global trade activity in July.  Specifically, the number of waterborne shipments coming into the U.S. experienced an 5% month-over-month increase from June to July.

The number of global manufacturers shipping to the U.S. was also up 2% from June to July.  This is roughly in line with previous years’ June-to-July changes: flat in 2010,  +7% in 2009, and +6% in 2008.

Additional notes:

• The percentage of significant manufacturers on the Panjiva Watch List remained steady at 20%.
• The percentage of significant buyers having done business with a Panjiva Watch List supplier in the preceding three months grew slightly from 28% to 29%.

Methodological notes:

• Manufacturers that have suffered a 50% or greater decline in volume shipped to American customers in the most recent three month period, versus the same period a year ago, are on the Panjiva Watch List.
• “Significant manufacturers” are companies that have sent 10 or more shipments to American customers within the last year. As of the end of July, there were 95,555 significant manufacturers.
• “Significant buyers” are U.S. companies that have received 10 or more shipments from overseas manufacturers within the last year. As of the end of July, there were 82,127 significant buyers.

Panjiva’s New York office has been stocking up on Angry Birds plush toys.  It appears we’re not the only ones.  Check out the Panjiva Trends data on Angry Birds shipments:

The green pigs should be afraid.  Very afraid.

The word from the Panjiva research team: we saw a very slight decline in global trade activity in June.  Specifically, the number of waterborne shipments coming into the U.S. experienced an 1% month-over-month decline from May to June.

The number of global manufacturers shipping to the U.S. was also down 1% from May to June.  This is roughly in line with previous years’ May-to-June changes: +1% in 2010, -1% in 2009, and -2% in 2008.

Additional notes:

• The percentage of significant manufacturers on the Panjiva Watch List remained steady at 20%.
• The percentage of significant buyers having done business with a Panjiva Watch List supplier in the preceding three months grew from 27% to 28%.

Methodological notes:

• Manufacturers that have suffered a 50% or greater decline in volume shipped to American customers in the most recent three month period, versus the same period a year ago, are on the Panjiva Watch List.
• “Significant manufacturers” are companies that have sent 10 or more shipments to American customers within the last year. As of the end of May, there were 95,192 significant manufacturers.
• “Significant buyers” are U.S. companies that have received 10 or more shipments from overseas manufacturers within the last year. As of the end of May, there were 81,776 significant buyers.

The word from the Panjiva research team: we saw solid seasonal growth in global trade activity in May.  Specifically, the number of waterborne shipments coming into the U.S. experienced an 8% month-over-month increase from April to May.

The number of global manufacturers shipping to the U.S. was up 6% from April to May.  This aligns with last year’s robust 9% increase, 2009’s +2%, and 2008’s +3%.

Additional notes:

• The percentage of significant manufacturers on the Panjiva Watch List continued its gradual increase from 19% to 20%.
• The percentage of significant buyers having done business with a Panjiva Watch List supplier in the preceding three months also experienced an increase from 26% to 27%.

Methodological notes:

• Manufacturers that have suffered a 50% or greater decline in volume shipped to American customers in the most recent three month period, versus the same period a year ago, are on the Panjiva Watch List.
• “Significant manufacturers” are companies that have sent 10 or more shipments to American customers within the last year. As of the end of May, there were 94,302 significant manufacturers.
• “Significant buyers” are U.S. companies that have received 10 or more shipments from overseas manufacturers within the last year. As of the end of May, there were 81,390 significant buyers.

Today, Panjiva launched its first Quarterly Trendspotting Report which contains a quantitative analysis of the macro trends shaping global trade during Q1 2011. This new initiative draws on Trendspotting, our intelligence tool which helps sourcing executives figure out which geographies are trending “hot” for the products they seek across the globe. The report provides a clear view of how some of the most rapidly changing product categories performed relative to the same quarter one year prior and can aid sourcing executives in making key decisions.

Some interesting findings from Q1 2011:

• U.S. Sourcing Executives are Still Dependent on China — The sheer dollar value of imports from China grew by over $13 billion. This is disconnected from what we have been hearing directly from sourcing executives that are eager to do business elsewhere. U.S. companies continue to be dependent on imports from China.
• High-end Products are In Demand in U.S. — Smartphones and precious stones came in as top drivers of imports this quarter with a 21 percent and 40 percent change, respectively.
• American Manufacturing Hype is Mostly Just That — Export growth was driven first and foremost by an increase in oil exports. Other export winners included cars and high end electrical products suggesting that the manufacturing resurgence is not broad-based.

The complete report, with more in-depth analysis on specific geographies and product categories, is available for free download at http://panjiva.com/info/q1_tradeflows/.

Looking forward to the summer movie season?  So are we.  Some data on which movies are likely to move the most merchandise, courtesy of Panjiva Trends.

The word from the Panjiva research team: we saw a healthy bump in global trade activity in April.  Specifically, the number of waterborne shipments coming into the U.S. experienced a 7% month-over-month increase from March to April.

The number of global manufacturers shipping to the U.S. was up 6% from March to April.  This compares favorably to last year’s 5%  March-to-April increase but unfavorably to 2009′s 8% March-to-April increase.

Additional notes:

• The percentage of significant manufacturers on the Panjiva Watch List increased slightly from from 18% to 19%.
• The percentage of significant buyers having done business with a Panjiva Watch List supplier in the preceding three months also experienced a slight bump, from 25% to 26%.

Methodological notes:

• Manufacturers that have suffered a 50% or greater decline in volume shipped to American customers in the most recent three month period, versus the same period a year ago, are on the Panjiva Watch List.
• “Significant manufacturers” are companies that have sent 10 or more shipments to American customers within the last year. As of the end of April, there were 93,649 significant manufacturers.
• “Significant buyers” are U.S. companies that have received 10 or more shipments from overseas manufacturers within the last year. As of the end of April, there were 80,821 significant buyers.