China and Brexit Take a Bite Out of U.S. Imports.

• U.S. imports fall 1.5% in June vs. year earlier.
• Chinese economy, Brexit partly to blame.
• 2016 full year growth likely just under 2%. 

Panjiva’s import data provides a timely guide to U.S. trade performance, and comes ahead of official advanced figures that are not published until August 5. So, how is the U.S. doing?

Not well.

Following a strong performance in May, U.S. import progress returned to negative territory in June according to Panjiva data. Total shipments reached 931,206 representing a 2.6% fall since May and a 1.5% decline since a year earlier. On a twenty-foot equivalent (TEU) basis the 2.142 million result was 3.2% lower than in May. This is consistent with the negative outlook expressed by Chinese export managers two weeks ago, and the results of Panjiva and Sourcing Journal’s ‘State of Trade’ outlook published in May.

Among the key markets, imports from China fell 8.1%. This was only partly offset by a 2.4% rise from South Korea, 1.7% from Japan and 10.9% from Italy. The Brexit-driven currency weakness of the British pound does not appear to have helped the competitiveness of U.K. exports to the U.S., with a 14.5% fall year over year.

The outlook for the full year is somewhat brighter.

By the end of the first half of the year 48.3% of U.S. full year imports have typically occurred, based on Panjiva data for 2010 through 2015. This reflects the heavier shipments ahead of the winter holiday season. On the basis of this figure, and the 5.43 million shipments made in the first half, full year shipments can be expected to rise 1.9% for 2016 vs. a year earlier. This is slightly lower than the 2.1% predicted by May’s data but would be a clear resurgence from the 4% decline in 2015 vs. 2014.

This post was first published in the Panjiva Daily, which features global trade news and data-driven insights and is free for all Panjiva subscribers. To find out more email sales@panjiva.com.