20 Most Read Panjiva Research Articles in May | — Panjiva
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20 Most Read Panjiva Research Articles in May

  • By Christopher Rogers
  • · June 6, 2017
  • ·

May was a busy month for U.S. trade policy, our readers’ interests show, with President Trump finally starting NAFTA renegotiations and the announcement of a 10 point plan for developments with China (worth $2.4 billion) signed. The president’s overseas trip ended in a spat with Germany, though Panjiva data suggests that may be the wrong target for his ire. In the world of logistics strike action and natural disasters provided disruptions for carriers and their customers alike, though activity remained strong for ports, carriers and NVOCCs.

Consolidation in the sector continued, with Hapag-Lloyd completing its acquisition of UASC and the top 20 carriers’ market share of U.S.-bound lanes reaching nearly 65%. They face risks in the future though, with potential activity-limiting rules being considered in the U.S. Finally, the force was not in evidence for imports of Star Wars toys on the 40th anniversary of the first movie’s release.

#1 138 Days to Negotiate NAFTA (May 18) The Trump administration finally pushed the button to start consultations with Congress to allow a renegotiation of NAFTA. Our analysis of the potential timetabling found notifications to Ways & Means and the Mexican elections put a hard stop on negotiations.

#2 12 Tasks for Trump’s Next 100 Days (April 26) The implementation of a slew of trade reviews and bilateral negotiations will make for a dizzying timetable in the second 100 days of President Trump’s administration. Our hitchhikers’ guide shows what to watch for, and when.

#3 McCain is the keyholder (May 10) The run-up to launching NAFTA renegotiations first needed the approval of U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer by the Senate. Senator John McCain threatened to hold up the process, which ultimately got completed and unlocked the door to Congressional consultations just over a week later.

#4 Where’s the beef (going) (May 12) A 10 point plan for delivering increased trade between the U.S. and China was an important waymarker for the two countries’ relations. Only two of the points related to U.S. goods exports though, with beef and LNG exports potentially worth $2.4 billion in our estimation.

#5 Spanish port worker were nearly revolting (May 18) Spanish dockworkers threatened strikes after the government implemented legislation to liberalize port operations. These ultimately didn’t occur, but our analysis identified Ford and textile maker DAK as being the most exposed. Strikes also took effect in Sweden.

#6 “Very Bad” Germany (May 29) The aftermath of President Trump’s first overseas visit involved a spat over trade deficits with Germany. While the German trade surplus accounts for 46% of the EU’s total vs. the U.S., it is already 15% below its peak – smaller EU states may be a better target. The prospects for a trade “action plan” and latterly the idea of restarting TTIP may bring a salve to wounded relations.

#7 Trilaterals vs. Bilaterals (May 24) Canada and Mexico stated an intent to carry out NAFTA renegotiations on a trilateral basis. Our analysis of the top 50 export lines from each country shows, however, that there are few genuine trilateral areas of trade interest. That likely means that in effect talks will be held bilaterally.

#8 DHL Outpaces Expeditors (May 11) Our monthly performance review of the NVOCCs U.S. import market share showed Deutsche Post DHL increasing its volumes by 30%, while Expeditors managed just 6%. Panalpina was the only major operator to see declining volumes.

#9 Trump’s trade ire saved for G7 (May 17) Our preview of President Trump’s first overseas trip highlighted: the conflict between energy and security policy with Saudi Arabia; why trade with Israel looks like that with South Korea; and the risk for trade policy conflict with the G7. The latter certainly proved correct as the #6 most read item showed.

#10 Let’s go tariff racing (May 8) The U.S. import boom continued in April, with our first read of activity – shown by seaborne shipments – indicating a 10% jump in volumes on a year earlier. Increased shipments from China, and higher imports of consumer goods including furniture were the main catalysts.

#11 Forwarders fly (May 9) Nippon Express wrapped up the first quarter earnings season for the freight forwarders with a 2% rise in revenues. It lagged the pack, with the five largest expeditors experiencing a 6% growth in revenues, which was 2% better than analysts expected.

#12 Seatac and Nola left behind (May 9) Our monthly review of the U.S. ports’ performance showed April was another bumper month, with a 9% growth in import handling led by 19% growth at Savannah. Few ports lost out, with the Seattle-Tacoma complex and New Orleans seeing contractions of 1% and 21% respectively.

#13 The last Jedi didn’t bring strength to the Force (May 4) Star Wars day and the 40th anniversary of the release of “A New Hope” gave us the excuse to look at related imports of toys and other goods. Sadly the franchise seems to be in reverse, with imports falling 22% in the 12 months to April 30.

#14 Expeditious expedition for TPP (May 22) The most used word of the month among politicians involved was “expeditiously”. Signatories to the TPP want to complete implementation “expeditiously”. However, our findings indicate Vietnam and Malaysia may prefer to push on with the RCEP rather than taking time on the TPP.

#15 Consolidation continues (May 10) Consolidation has been an ongoing theme in the container-line industry. It isn’t all about mergers and acquisitions though (see next article) – our monthly review of the state of U.S. inbound lanes show the top 20 operators now have a near 65% share of volumes.

#16 Hapag-Lloyd triples Maersk (May 25) The completion of Hapag-Lloyd’s acquisition of United Arab Shipping finally revealed the price paid. Our analysis of the deal terms and company financials shows the all-stock transaction was equivalent to 2.07x revenues. Maersk is paying 0.66x for Hamburg Sud.

#17 Routes vs. rates conundrum (May 12) A U.S. Congressional committee looks set to implement legislation that will allow shippers to either be part of a rate-setting agreement or an alliance, but not both. We found rate-setting arrangements like TSA do lead to more stable rates, with an average 0.2% weekly change in pricing vs. 0.5% for routes without an arrangement. Shippers will need to choose efficiency or stability.

#18 Another review, a broader reach (May 2) President Trump expanded the portfolio of work for the Commerce Department by calling for a review of all the trade deals the U.S. is involved in. Our examination of the deals show the most likely target for review will be KORUS with South Korea.

#19 Uncertain times for beer (May 24) Our new series of deep-dives into the drinks industry flagged the exposure of Constellation Brands to a potential border adjustable tax and NAFTA renegotiation. U.S. imports of Mexican beer have climbed 38% in the past year, with Canadian exporters the main losers.

#20 Fixing bridges before fillings need fixing (May 24) Heavy rainfalls stopped transportation from Mexico to the U.S. via the World Trade Bridge in Nuevo Laredo. Our analysis of exposed parties showed Colgate-Palmolive, Procter & Gamble and Lear to be exposed. Better stock up on toothpaste.

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