EnGlobal trade had its “deer in the headlights” moment in 2017. The inauguration of President Donald Trump raised the prospect that America would completely change the fundamental landscape of global trade.
Both the public and private sector spent the year waiting to see what President Trump would do, but few concrete trade actions with business implications were completed.
As 2018 dawns, we face a similar amount of uncertainty — but also the reality that business decisions have to be made, and action has to be taken.
The recent win for the Trump administration from the passage of the tax reform bill may give the President confidence to take action on trade in the early months of 2018. From a political perspective, action against trade has been a winner, and that may be top of mind for the Administration heading into the 2018 Congressional elections.
It will be interesting to see whether the Democrats move toward or away from the President on trade. Traditionally, Democrats have been tough on trade, but their anti-Trump tendencies may push them in the opposite direction.
Indeed, every action has an equal and opposite reaction. The push against global trade in America has triggered a renewed focus elsewhere in the world on the benefits from free trade. Asia is taking the lead here, and the “trade singularity” at which China overtakes the U.S. as a trading nation may be as little as five years away.
While the politics is fascinating, the U.S. isolationist stance is partly a response to the fact that it is lives and livelihoods, not just policy and politicians, that matter.
As we head into 2018, the global supply chain community, of which Panjiva is a proud part, needs to continue to demonstrate its value by delivering the benefits that come with delivering the goods that enrich our lives in a timely, cost effective, socially responsible and innovative way.
At Panjiva, we’re in the business of innovation — specifically, leveraging technology to get value from supply chain data. We will continue to invest in innovation, and we’re excited to see investments in innovation growing across the global supply chain. However, continued growth in technology investment depends on real business benefits being created. Here again, we must deliver the goods.
In 2018, we expect global trade activity to continue to expand. And, despite all the political headwinds, 2018 has the potential to follow 2017 as yet another “best year yet” for those in and around global supply chains.
To learn more about what we expect, take a look through the Panjiva Research “2018 Outlook.” Of course, we would love to hear what you’re expecting, so, if you have a moment, please share your thoughts with me or with others on the Panjiva team.
From all of us at Panjiva, good luck in 2018!
Josh Green
CEO, Panjiva
January 8, 2018
