Supply Chain Research

An initial meeting between EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom and U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appear to have been purely technical in nature, based on a comment from Commissioner Malmstrom. The possibility for an “ambitious trade agreement” was flagged in a speech later in the day by the Commissioner. This follows reports that the U.S. administration may prioritize the EU over the U.K. for a new trade deal, as outlined in Panjiva research of April 24.

The major challenge for such a deal would be European electoral politics. A revived Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership would likely face all the national political interest challenges that the CETA deal between the EU and Canada faced, as outlined in Panjiva research of February 16. Furthermore there are elections in countries accounting for 57.4% of U.S. trade with the EU (excluding the U.K.) before the U.S. midterms in November 2018, Panjiva analysis of U.S. imports and exports shows. While talks might start, it is difficult to see them yielding a ratified deal in that timeframe.

Chart shows U.S. trade-in-goods deficit ( exports less imports) for EU countries in most recent reported month. X-axis indicates proposed date of next national election. Bubble size indicates scale of trade with U.S.  Source: Panjiva