Even as the administration of President Donald Trump struggles to reform healthcare, U.S. drug imports are getting cheaper. That may be a pre-emptive move given the President’s prior comments, as outlined in Panjiva research of June 28. It also comes ahead of FDA reauthorization due by September.

At a highly aggregated level, imports of all pharmaceuticals increased 20.9% in volume terms, but increased just 0.3% in value terms, Panjiva data shows. That implies a 17.1% drop in prices on a year prior, and brings the 12 month trailing average “cost per kilo” to its lowest since August 2015. This can of course be explained by a mix effect rather than simple cost cutting, but is a marked trend.

Chart compares U.S. imports of prepared pharmaceuticals (HS 3004) on a volume and value basis. Upper panel shows year-over-year change. Lower panel shows implied value per kilo (value divided by volume) on a 12 month trailing average basis. Source: Panjiva

In May nine of the 11 drug classes that Panjiva tracks saw a drop in average import values per unit. Among the larger classes of particular note was a 31.3% drop in average cardiovascular treatment values, while among the mid-sized classes nervous-system treatments fell 33.6% and anti-convulsants by 16.7%.

That was offset in large part by a 4.3% rise in oncology and immunotherapy drugs, which as a class are twice as large as any other, and saw a 4.3% rise. Taking a three month view there was a drop in 11 of the 15 classes, again led by a slide in cardiovascular. The worst performing group after cardiovascular was gastrointestinal treatments which saw a 13.1% drop in volumes despite a 13.2% drop in prices.

Chart segments 15 therapy classes. X-axis shows change in volumes imported in past 3 months on a year earlier. Y-axis shows change in import value per unit. Bubble size indicates size of therapy group in value-terms Source: Panjiva

The drop in cardiovascular (specifically anticoagulant) and gastrointestinal (specifically proton-pump inhibitors) volumes likely continued in June at a rate of 45.1% and 13.5% respectively based on seaborne data. The former does partly reverse an earlier rise in imports, with the second quarter total 3.2% higher. That was better than the 12.6% drop in the largest five classes that are imported by sea for the quarter.

Calculations based on keyword search for main drug names and brands for statins, anticonvulsants, P-PIs, Insulins and anticoagulents. Source: Panjiva

The generic drugmakers as a group did slightly better overall, when including all drug classes. The top 12 manufacturers tracked by Panjiva had an average 1.2% rise in shipments in the second quarter compared to the prior year. The fastest growth has been seen by Aurobindo and Teva, which expanded 76.9% and 8.2% respectively. Aurobindo’s growth may continue after receiving FDA approval for generic Renvela (kidney disease). Their success has largely come at the expense of Amneal and Dr Reddy’s, which dropped 12.0% and 32.5%.

Chart shows change in U.S. seaborne imports by shipper name over past three months on prior period (vertical) and year earlier (horizontal) and relative scale of imports (bubble size). Colors for clarity only. Source: Panjiva