Initial talks between U.S. Vice President Pence and Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso of Japan as part of the two countries’ “economic dialogue” may have immediately hit a problem. Vice President Pence called for developments towards a “bilateral negotiation”, Reuters reports, and a sense of “impatience”. That came despite previous assertions from the Japanese government last week that it doesn’t want bilateral talks.

The two countries have agreed to try and reach “concrete results” with talks scheduled only for later in the year. Outcomes may be more along the lines of micro-policies such as improved U.S. agricultural access rather than a full bilateral trade deal. That is because – at least in part – Japan already has two major other deals in progress. One is to potentially revive the Trans-Pacific Partnership as part of the RCEP trade process, although RCEP negotiators appear set against this. Another is to rapidly deliver a free trade deal with the European Union as outlined in Panjiva research of March 22.

A deal with RCEP (effectively ASEAN plus China plus four others) matters much more for Japan than the U.S. Panjiva analysis of official figures shows exports to China were equivalent to 89.9% of those to the U.S. in the 12 months to February 28, while those to other RCEP countries were 131%. Exports to the two combined fell 3.5% over the past 12 months. The EU is also significant, with exports worth 56.6% of those to the U.S. with a 0.6% reduction.

Chart shows trailing 12 month average (single month in dotted lines) of Japanese exports. RCEP ex China includes ASEAN, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand. Calculations based on Japanese Ministry of Finance figures. Source: Panjiva