Government actions around the world in response to coronavirus, including the U.S., are leading to widespread closures of pubs and bars – raising the prospect of reduced beer sales through that route, though drink at home sales may pick up. As discussed in Panjiva’s research of March 16, the spread of coronavirus is being felt acutely in both the supply and demand side of the consumer goods industries.

There’s already been a notable impact on the brewing industry. ABInBev’s CEO, Carlos Alves de Brito has stated in relation to China that “this outbreak has resulted in lost revenue of approximately $285 million“. For context, that’s equivalent to 4.4% of Asia region revenues for the firm in 2019 overall, Panjiva’s analysis of S&P Global Market Intelligence data shows. 

Prior growth in sales elsewhere in the world has come from ABI’s sales of Mexican beers, which has included the unfortunately meme-worth Corona beer. 

Panjiva data shows that Mexican beer exports have generally been resilient so far with a 2.2% year over year expansion in shipments in February following a 10.4% surge in January. Yet, that was supported by strong exports to the U.S. which rose by 11.4% in January while shipments to the rest of the world slumped 26.0% lower. 

Chart segments Mexican beer exports by destination. Source: Panjiva

AB InBev has had a tough time already compared to the average. Exports in February fell 24.4% year over year after a 20.7% slide in Q4. The latter may be the result of its brands falling out of favor. Worse though was Heineken’s 31.1% slump in shipments which may be tied to slump in demand for Dos Equis beer. 

By contrast there’s been a 21.4% surge in shipments linked to Constellation brands after a 4.0% improvement in Q4. The extensive “shelter in place” measures now being taken in the U.S. may lead to a reversal in the U.S.-bound shipments for all three firms in the coming months.

Chart segments Mexican beer exports by shipper on a monthly and three-month average basis. Source: Panjiva