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Finding the floor for global trade activity in wake of COVID-19

Coronavirus 307 Global 1077 Trade Balance 831

Global trade activity dropped by 16.2% year over year in April according to CPB data, marking the 11th downturn in the past 12 months and the fastest rate of decline since May 2009. Early evidence for May from Panjiva’s analysis suggests more of the same as COVID-19 continued to keep many economies closed. The average downturn reported by the 15 countries that have provided May data shows a 16.4% year over year slide despite a dip of just 3.3% in exports from China. Coming right up to date, U.S. seaborne imports for the first half of June show a 7.8% decline suggesting that May could hav...

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