EnGlobal trade expanded 2.2% on a year earlier in December, Panjiva analysis of CPB World Trade Monitor data shows. That was a second straight month of growth, meaning there’s only been three months of contraction in the past five years. All the regions reviewed saw an increase, with Japan climbing the fastest at 5.5% and with the U.S. expanding by 4.1%.
Growth in Japan slowed in January, with a 1% rate of expansion the result of slowing shipments to the U.S., as discussed in Panjiva research of February 20. This should be offset by China’s 16% export growth for January, though that may reflect exporters trying to preempt new trade restrictions by the U.S. administration. Growth has also continued in other markets in January including Brazil, South Korea and Taiwan.
Source: Panjiva
The growth in global trade in 2016 was unusual in that it saw all regions growing at the same time later in the year. Looking ahead to 2017 a continued coordination may be at risk if the Trump administration prioritizes domestic expansion over longer term global relations. Near term it will be the renegotiation of NAFTA that set the tone. China’s attempts to expand Asian free-trade zones may only lead to a recovery at a later stage.
Source: Panjiva
