American imports of fireworks typically peak in May each year as deliveries arrive in time for the Independence Day holiday. An early peak in March is normally followed by a second surge in May as retailers gauge demand. Panjiva data shows that imports in the first four months of the year were 5.2% lower than a year earlier.

Yet, a late surge in seaborne shipments in May and June of 37.8% likely means imports for the first half of the year were 9.4% higher than a year earlier and reached a single month record in the month of May.

Chart shows U.S. seaborne imports of fireworks. Lower panel indicates change vs. a year earlier.  Source: Panjiva

One reason for the late burst may have been concerns over duties on imports from China, which accounted for 94.7% of the $273 million of total imports in the 12 months to April 30 and 94.4% of seaborne shipments.

While not included in the most recent list of section 301 duties, outlined in Panjiva research of June 15, the inclusion of fireworks in a longer-list – President Trump has called for an assessment of $200 billion of products – cannot be ruled out given the high proportion of shipments coming from China.

Should duties eventually be forthcoming leading buyers from China including Jake’s Fireworks, American Promotional and Phantom will need to decide whether to raise consumer prices or try and find alternative supplies.

Chart segments U.S. seaborne imports of fireworks from China by consignee. Source: Panjiva