U.S. business sentiment may be reflecting hopes that the U.S.-China trade truce will become permanent. Import order expectations in the most recent ISM survey fell to 52.7 from 53.6 in November (a figure over 50 indicates expansion) while exports increased to 52.8 from 52.2. There may be reasons to be cautious though. First are signs of an overall economic slowdown – the overall manufacturing index fell to its lowest since Nov. 2016. Second, Chinese businesses expect declines in both exports and imports. Indeed their expectations for imports are at their lowest since July 2012. ...