Balanced Picture For Global Trade Could Tip on Tweets and Sneezes — Panjiva
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Balanced Picture For Global Trade Could Tip on Tweets and Sneezes

Brexit 175 Business Sentiment 203 France 153 Germany 243 Global 1389 Trade Balance 932

Global trade activity continued to slide in November with a 1.4% year over year drop in global exports, Panjiva’s analysis of CPB World Monitor data shows. That marked the sixth straight decline and included an 0.8% slide in exports from the Eurozone. 

The picture is somewhat brighter for December, though caution is needed. Panjiva’s analysis of macroeconomic data from 16 countries shows half have reported a year over year improvement in December at an average 3.4% rate. 

Yet, that may be distorted by the timing of pre-tariff stockpiling a year earlier as discussed in Panjiva’s research of Jan. 13. China accounts for 46% of the basket of early reporters. Emerging risks from the spread of coronavirus casts a pall over post lunar new year prospects.

GLOBAL EXPORT ACTIVITY DRIFTED DOWNWARDS FOR MOST OF 2019

Chart shows global export growth with range of highest and lowest regional performance as covered by CPB World Monitor data.  Source: Panjiva 

German business export sentiment remains positive at a net +0.9%, Panjiva’s analysis of IFO survey data shows. That was the second month of improvement after five months of declines. Expectations in France were slightly better than a month earlier according to the latest INSEE survey, though at -15% the reading was still worse than the long-term average of -14%.

The improvements in both surveys likely reflect a combination of the orderly Brexit deal ahead of Jan. 31 as well as the deal reached between the French and U.S. governments regarding digital services taxes.

Yet, U.S.-EU relations remain on a knife-edge: President Trump has returned to his threats of automotive tariffs; there’s the unresolved issue of carbon border taxes; and the approval or otherwise of the use of Huawei telecoms equipment in EU states remains a running sore in security relations.

GERMAN SENTIMENT RECOVERS AS BREXIT WOES WANE

Chart compares export order sentiment by country where zero = balanced outlook. Calculations include IFO and INSEE survey data.  Source: Panjiva 

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