Global trade activity continued to slide in November with a 1.4% year over year drop in global exports, Panjiva’s analysis of CPB World Monitor data shows. That marked the sixth straight decline and included an 0.8% slide in exports from the Eurozone.
The picture is somewhat brighter for December, though caution is needed. Panjiva’s analysis of macroeconomic data from 16 countries shows half have reported a year over year improvement in December at an average 3.4% rate.
Yet, that may be distorted by the timing of pre-tariff stockpiling a year earlier as discussed in Panjiva’s research of Jan. 13. China accounts for 46% of the basket of early reporters. Emerging risks from the spread of coronavirus casts a pall over post lunar new year prospects.
Source: Panjiva
German business export sentiment remains positive at a net +0.9%, Panjiva’s analysis of IFO survey data shows. That was the second month of improvement after five months of declines. Expectations in France were slightly better than a month earlier according to the latest INSEE survey, though at -15% the reading was still worse than the long-term average of -14%.
The improvements in both surveys likely reflect a combination of the orderly Brexit deal ahead of Jan. 31 as well as the deal reached between the French and U.S. governments regarding digital services taxes.
Yet, U.S.-EU relations remain on a knife-edge: President Trump has returned to his threats of automotive tariffs; there’s the unresolved issue of carbon border taxes; and the approval or otherwise of the use of Huawei telecoms equipment in EU states remains a running sore in security relations.
Source: Panjiva