Worldwide PC shipments were down 3.9% on a year earlier in the third quarter according to IDC. Trade data for exports from China suggest little has changed in the beginning of the fourth quarter. Panjiva data shows that total exports fell 11.8% in the month of October, and by 11.9% over the three months to October 31 on a year earlier.

The underperformance in October was led by stand-alone PC systems, which fell 46.7% in the month of October and 18.8% in the three months. This may be because consumer demand continues to shift to all-in-ones, which saw a 2% growth in the three month period despite having fallen 8.5% in October alone.

The best performing, but still contracting, segment was servers, which fell just 3.1% in October but are up 3.7% over the three months. These latter two however couldn’t offset weakness from laptops. These accounted for 82.0% of exports during the month, and fell 10.3% in the month and by 13.9% over the three months after a particularly weak September.

Upper panel segments computer exports by laptop (HS 8471.30), standalone PC (HS 8471.49), all-in-one machines (8741.41) and servers (8471.50). Lower panel shows change in aggregate Source: Panjiva

Laptops may be facing a number of negative trends. In developed markets this may be due to a trend towards detachables, which are classified as tablets, at the lower end and gaming consoles at the higher end. A resulting fall in average selling prices may be behind the drop in U.S. bound shipments, down 5.8%, despite a rebound in shipments shown in Panjiva research of November 14. Among other regions exports to the EU were the weakest with a 17.6% decline.

Imports of laptops segmented by destination country. Note exports to Hong Kong may be reexported to other markets.  Source: Panjiva

Product cycles matter. Among the major shippers the best performing was Inventec, with a 22.8% jump in October and 5.8% for the three months to October 31 on a year earlier. This may reflect its (delayed) shipments of Chromebooks for Xiaomi.

Exports by Lenovo jumped 27.2%, and tied for fifth position with Wistron, as its Yogabook was a rare new product available earlier in the quarter. New products from Apple and Microsoft have come much later in the year. The obverse, along with supply chain shifts, may explain why shipments by largest exporter Quanta, a supplier to Apple, slid 30.4% in October on a year earlier.

Data segments total laptop exports by keyword search for company name: Quanta includes Tech Front and Dagong; Hon Hai includes Hong Fu Jin and Futaihua; and Inventec includes Yingyeda  Source: Panjiva