Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada will tour several U.S. cities this week in a grassroots push for support of continued NAFTA negotiations, with stops already planned for Illinois and California. As outlined in Panjiva research of January 30 the talks have struggled to make progress, and run the risk of President Trump issuing a withdrawal notice.

Presumably the Prime Minister is aiming to convince American workers that the maintenance of access to Canada as an export market is in their best interests. Panjiva analysis of official figures show that they account for 6.2% and 5.9% respectively of U.S. exports to Canada in 2017. Yet, Michigan (8.8%), Texas (8.1%) and Ohio (6.7%) are all more important in absolute terms.

Outside the border states though Illinois is the most exposed to Canadian trade as a proportion of its total exports (27.1%) followed by Tennessee (27.0%). Notably California is significantly less exposed than average to exports to Canada, which accounted for just 9.8% of California’s exports vs. 18.3% for the national average.

Overall though it is the Dakotas with the most to lose from a NAFTA failure, with 87.0% of North Dakota’s exports going to either Canada or Mexico and 64.8% for South Dakota.

Chart segments segments U.S. exports to Canada and Mexico by each state’s total exports globally. Horizontal lines indicate national average. Calculations based on U.S. Census Bureau data. Source: Panjiva