Predictable Politics, Unpredictable Deficit for U.S. in September — Panjiva
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Predictable Politics, Unpredictable Deficit for U.S. in September

Elections 124 Politics 153 Trade Balance 933 U.S. 5347

The advance U.S. trade deficit, due on October 26, is the most important this year and possibly the least predictable. The anti-trade bias of the U.S. elections so far seems unlikely to change, and comes as economists expect a 2% increase on a year earlier in the goods deficit to $60.5 billion. Panjiva data shows seaborne imports increased 1% on a year earlier, while early reporting airports show a 3% increase in traffic. This lackluster year-on-year growth in volumes comes as import prices fell 1% on a year earlier – imports may well be unchanged in dollar terms.

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