Iman Pambagyo, the chief negotiator for the RCEP trade deal, sees the prospects of completing a text this year for signing next year, Bloomberg reports. He has warned, however, against efforts to “TPP-enize” the deal to include labor and environmental standards. The text is reportedly “10% complete”, which may suggest Vietnamese expectations of the completion timetable, outlined in Panjiva research of March 9, are more accurate than those from China.

While much of the focus is on reducing tariffs on goods, it is the services and procurement chapters as well as standards and regulations that can prove to be the major complication. That was was seen with the CETA deal between Canada and the EU as well as with TTIP itself. Meetings between Chinese and Australian ministers this week may indicate TPP signatories willingness to “keep it simple”.

Panjiva analysis of the current account balances of the RCEP negotiating members shows services on average are equivalent to 26.7% of goods. For South Korea and China services are less relevant at 20.1% and 22.2% respectively, suggesting a greater focus on the goods terms. Outliers include India (services are 60.1% of goods on the export side) and the Philippines (73.2% on the same basis) where significant offshored call-center and IT services are provided, though these are mostly outside the RCEP group.

Chart compares services as a proportion of goods exports (horizontal) and imports (vertical) for most recent reported data. Countries in italics not part of RCEP, other colors for clarity only. Source: Panjiva