U.S. sugar imports are set to surge after bad weather caused a 10% drop in the harvest in 2019, NPR reports, leading to potential extra orders from Brazil, Mexico and Thailand. 

U.S. imports already climbed by 17.4% year over year in October after falling by 16.0% in 3Q and by 7.3% in the past 12 months, Panjiva data shows.

Shipments from Mexico represented 37.1% of the total in the past 12 months. Yet, they have fallen by 53.6% year over year in October. India might become a source after the government there expanded its support for sugar subsidies, as outlined in Panjiva’s research of Jul. 16, though they have been minimal so far.

Chart segments U.S. sugar imports by origin on a monthly and three-month average basis.  Source: Panjiva

Imports from Mexico are complicated by the uncertain status of a sugar tariff suspension agreement that is having to be revisited after a Court of International Trade ruling in October. That leaves some doubt as to whether importers will be able to depend on Mexico as a source of supply going forward.

The leading U.S. importer of sugar from Mexico in the 12 months to Sept. 30 was CSC with 29.3% of the total after a 20.8% surge in 3Q. That was followed by Sucres et Denrees ( Sucden) 15.6% of total after 398% surge though it is a seasonal shipper so timing rather than demand may be the driver of the jump in shipments. Shipments by CSC and Sucden were partly offset by a slump in shipments by ED&F Man which now represent just 6.3% of the total.

Chart segments Mexican sugar exports to the U.S. by consignee on a monthly and three-month average basis.  Source: Panjiva