2019 Outlook – Black Swans: Trade War May Be The Least Of Our Worries — Panjiva


2019 Outlook – Black Swans: Trade War May Be The Least Of Our Worries

China 1844 Corp - Shipping 629 Mode - Containerized 1036 Mode - Seaborne 1307 North Korea 37 Outlook 43 Taiwan 102 Theme - Canals 89 U.S. 3446 Vietnam 170

The integration of global supply chains leaves them vulnerable to “black swan” – low likelihood, high impact – events. The U.S.-China relationship may worsen should North Korea back away from denuclearization. America may well blame China, jeopardizing a trade deal even though China’s trade with the DPRK fell 52.6% on a year earlier in the 12 months to Nov. 30. U.S.-China naval rivalry in the South China Sea and China’s more hawkish stance towards Taiwan could become a military confrontation even if by accident. That would cause significant shipping issues in the region. The...

PANJIVA RESEARCH is a service provided by Panjiva, Inc. ("Panjiva") to relevant global subscribers, and are deemed to be Panjiva "Services" subject to the Panjiva Terms & Conditions of Use. Information contained within or made available via the Services is for informational purposes only and nothing in the Services shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments, or as investment advice or recommendations by Panjiva, Inc. or its affiliates of an investment strategy or whether to "buy", "sell" or "hold" an investment. The Services may include views and commentary about customers of Panjiva. No aspect of the Services is based on consideration of your individual circumstances, and you should determine on your own whether you agree with the information contained within or made available via the Services. Employees involved in Panjiva Research may hold positions in securities analyzed or discussed in the Services. Panjiva does not make any express or implied warranties, representations, endorsements or conditions with respect to the Services and the information contained within or made available via the Services, including without limitation, warranties as to the usefulness, completeness, accuracy, currentness, reliability or sufficiency of any information (including, without limitation, conclusions, statements, opinions, estimates, forecasts or projections of any kind) and expressly disclaims any implied warranties. Neither this disclaimer nor any of its contents may be forwarded or redistributed without the prior written consent of Panjiva. © 2019 Panjiva, Inc. All Rights Reserved.