2019 Outlook – Black Swans: Trade War May Be The Least Of Our Worries

China 2530 Corp - Shipping 780 Mode - Containerized 1230 Mode - Seaborne 1558 North Korea 41 Outlook 66 Taiwan 149 Theme - Canals 96 U.S. 4478 Vietnam 273

The integration of global supply chains leaves them vulnerable to “black swan” – low likelihood, high impact – events. The U.S.-China relationship may worsen should North Korea back away from denuclearization. America may well blame China, jeopardizing a trade deal even though China’s trade with the DPRK fell 52.6% on a year earlier in the 12 months to Nov. 30. U.S.-China naval rivalry in the South China Sea and China’s more hawkish stance towards Taiwan could become a military confrontation even if by accident. That would cause significant shipping issues in the region. There were 3.11...

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