EnPresident Donald Trump has signed Memorandum mandating the Commerce Department to “expeditiously” investigate the national security implications of aluminum imports and make recommendations for action. This follows a similar move in steel, as outlined in Panjiva research of April 21. The “ section 232” investigation under the 1962 Trade Expansion Act can take up to 270 days to complete, with the President having a further 90 days to decide on actions. The Memorandum does not set an explicit schedule, but does suggest a date sooner than January 22 2018 for the report.
Panjiva analysis of the top 50 import lines (defined by HS-10 code) and top 10 trade partners shows the aluminum sector is significantly less complex than for steel. The top 10 country-product pairs accounted for 59.9% of total imports in 2016. That may make it easier to identify meaningful targets.
Countries that are likely to be targeted include Canada (52.0% of total imports), Russia (9.8%) and the UAE (6.2%). A complicating factor in targeting Canada would be the soon-to-be-launched NAFTA renegotiations. An issue with Russia is that the country may also be targeted in the steel investigation. Potential high-impact cases could involve: unwrought, unalloyed aluminum from Canada, Russia or UAE; aluminum plate from China and Canada; and aluminum foil from China. The latter is already being targeted by Commerce in an investigation started on April 23.
Source: Panjiva
The potential targeting of Russia and the UAE is also confirmed by recent growth. Total imports increased 10.0% for the 12 months to February 28 on a year earlier. That was led by a 99% increase in shipments from Russia and and 60.6% from the UAE. Meanwhile imports from Canada dropped 2.0% and those from China fell 4.0%.
Source: Panjiva
