The China-led RCEP trade deal appears to be making progress, according to the Philippine Trade Minister, with a deal on tariff reductions possible by the year end. China’s trade with the 15 partner countries has been falling, Panjiva data shows, with a 3% drop in exports in the 12 months in total to September 30, and a 6% slump in imports. More generally China may be keen to complete RCEP, and the central-Asia focussed SCO deal, while the U.S. is stuck in its electoral cycle and ‘lame duck’ session.