EnU.S. seaborne imports fell 8.0% on a year earlier in February, Panjiva data shows on a preliminary basis. That’s the first drop since June and is the first monthly read wholly under the Trump administration. This follows a 9.2% jump in the value of goods imports in January, as discussed in Panjiva research of March 7.
This may partly reflect slow shipments early in the month due to the lunar new year, though trade data from South Korea discussed suggests this may be minimal. An alternative explanation is that the prior bump likely reflected importers’ desire to get ahead of any new taxes or tariffs. Now that these appear to be taking longer to implement than initial rhetoric suggested we may be seeing a return to normal. The risk case to this is flagged by the recent ISM manager survey, which is not as downbeat as this data would initially suggest.
Source: Panjiva
Geographically almost all of the U.S. major trading partners saw a decline in shipments in February that confirms this. Imports from China fell 14.8%, or a decline of 4.5% when taking a 2 month average to adjust for the new year. Similarly Taiwan experienced a 14.4% slide (6.8% adjusted), making the U.S. even less relevant as a major export market. Even in the case of the exceptions there was a marked slowdown, with shipments to the European Union increased 7.8% for the month of February – the slowest rate since July.
Source: Panjiva
Looking across the six major seaborne products all either declined on a year earlier or saw a slowdown in growth. Apparel imports slumped 20.5% on a year earlier, the fastest rate of decline since at least 2008 on a preliminary basis, continuing a nine month trend of declines. The post holiday-rebound in toy imports also juddered to a halt, reflecting in part the high proportion of China-sourcing in the category.
In what may be music to the ears of the steel industry experience-heavy trade team the imports of iron and steel fell 2.4%, the first drop after six months of increases. Ironically, given all the attention President Trump has given the sector, imports of automotive parts and vehicles marginally increased by 0.2%, though that was the slowest expansion in seven months.
Source: Panjiva
This article was first published by Panjiva Research. To find out more visit panjiva.com/data/research or email sales@panjiva.com.
]]>#1 TPP Gone, But NAFTA Matters More (Jan 23) Comparing President Trump’s rejection of TPP to other campaign commitments.
#2 Maersk’s Alibaba Deal Could Access 699,000 Contract Market (Jan 5) Assesses the potential market size for Maersk’s LCL venture
#3 Trump Trips on Toyota Auto Facts, Canada the Actual Loser (Jan 6) The President (then-elect) tweeted against Toyota, we looked at their supply chain across NAFTA.
#4 Is Germany Next on Trump’s Target List? (Jan 31) Peter Navarro cites Germany as a currency manipulator – autos, healthcare and aerospace are exposed.
#5 Is Trump Looking In The Wrong Place? (Jan 10) Our monthly early read of trade activity showed the EU and India as bigger trade threats than China.
#6 Rush to Beat Trump, Early New Year Help Weak China Exports (Jan 13) A review of China’s December export stats suggests exporters did accelerate shipments to beat the inauguration.
#7 Trump’s Trade Hawk Takes Leisurely Flight, Until the Next Deficit (Jan 20) The updated White House website on inauguration day spilled the beans on key policies.
#8 Main Brexit Problem is EU Unity, Not U.K. Desires (Jan 17) We identify which countries need special treatment by the U.K. as it seeks a ‘hard Brexit’.
#9 Are Pharma Imports Reddy for Trump? (Jan 11) The President let rip at the pharma companies, we identified key generic drug suppliers who may be exposed.
#10 6 Shipping Industry Questions to Answer in 2017 (Jan 4) From earnings and deals, to capacity discipline and reefers, here’s what to watch.
#11 Trump’s Day 1 TPP, NAFTA Moves to be Followed by Crowded Kitchen (Jan 17) What to expect from inauguration day and beyond.
#12 Trump Racing? China Phone Exports to U.S. Jumped 40% in November (Jan 9) Chinese mobile phone exports hit a new high in November – why?
#13 Trump Trade Deficit Focus Drawn by 6% Mexican Export Surge (Jan 26) Mexico has another good (or is that bad?) month.
#14 7 Trade Deals to Track in 2017 (Jan 3) All things Trump plus SLA, RCEP, EGA, WTO and Brexit.
#15 No Deal for Now, High Expectations for Orient Overseas in 2017 (Jan 20) Setting the non-deal in an industry revenue context
#16 Adidas Sees Little Change to Business Under Trump Trade Policy (Jan 18) Because all sportswear makers import from Asia.
#17 25 Months of Chinese PC Pain May Soon Be Over (Jan 10) PC exports fell at their slowest rate in over two years.
#18 Shipping Shuffles Forward, Analysts Hope (Jan 24) Our preview of the forthcoming shipping earnings reports.
#19 Trump and May to Stay Hand-in-Hand-in-Trade (Jan 30) Who’s most exposed to a new U.K./U.S. trade deal?
#20 Ross Needs New Import Tools to Cut Tool Imports (Jan 26) We drill into the details of the rapid growth in U.S. hand- and power-tool imports.
Panjiva Research brings our unique data and technology to bear on global trade events, issues and concepts. It gives subscribers data-driven insights into politics, economics, logistics and industries in a concise, visual, content-rich format. You’ll also receive a daily email of the most vital information about global trade. To learn more email sales@panjiva.com or talk to a trade specialist at +1-888-902-3511.
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Considering that 2016 was supposed to be a bad year for global trade, the U.S. seaborne import data tell a different story. Shipments increased 8.9% in December on a year earlier, Panjiva data shows. This resulted in full year shipments that broke through 11 million for the first time (to 11,137,860) having increased 2.4% vs. 2015. This is the initial evidence that December’s import data – the first that will be reported under the incoming administration of President-elect Trump – could show a strong increase, as discussed in Panjiva research of January 4.
Source: Panjiva
Imports from China and Hong Kong underperformed, with a 4.2% increase on a year earlier in December, and just 3.5% in the fourth quarter compared to a national average of 7.4%. The fastest growth came from the European Union (13.2% higher in December and 13.4% for the fourth quarter) and India (10.8% higher in December). This would suggest that President-elect Trump may want to consider widening his net from just China and Mexico when looking for reasons for rising U.S. imports.
Source: Panjiva
From a product perspective the outlier was imports of toys. These jumped 26.8% on a year earlier in December having had a lackluster pre-holiday season, and is an area where Chinese suppliers – who account for three quarters of the import volumes. This may therefore be a sector that comes into trade policy focus, as outlined in Panjiva research of January 5.
The auto sector, which certainly has been a focus for the incoming administration, saw a 6.6% increase in December imports of both completed vehicles and autoparts. Imports by land also likely increased, as shown by a 18.2% increase in Mexican auto exports. Elsewhere imports of furnishings jumped 11.1% to reach a new high, which perhaps reflects robust consumer sentiment. Apparel continued to be weak, falling 2.8% in December, bringing the fourth quarter to a 4.2% decline.
Source: Panjiva
The strong December data is not necessarily a sign of further gains to come. The month accounted for the biggest proportion of full year shipments since 2010, and also comes ahead of an the earliest lunar new year shut-down for Chinese manufacturers since 2012. It did mean, however, that the distribution of shipments during the year, and in particular the latter part of the year, was the least volatile since 2011. Whether this just reflects the demise of Hanjin Shipping during the normal September peak, or a systemic change in the seasonality of the shipping industry remains to be seen.
Source: Panjiva
This research was first published in the Panjiva Daily, which features global trade news and data-driven insights and is free for all Panjiva subscribers. To find out more email sales@panjiva.com.
]]>U.S. seaborne imports increased 5.5% in November on a year earlier, Panjiva data shows, the fifth straight increase. This suggests the return-to-growth seen in the value of goods imports seen in October might continue. The fastest growth among major product lines came from furnishings and iron/steel at 6% while auto and parts imports increased 1%. The latter two may act as bait to President-elect Trump’s transitional trade team looking for initial industries to target. Imports of apparel fell 11%, the sixth straight drop. The EU continue to be the biggest contributor to growth at 11%, while China’s exports to the U.S. by sea climbed 5%. Based on year-to-date shipments, total growth for 2016 could be 2.1%.
U.S. seaborne import shipments climbed by 5.5% in November on a year earlier, Panjiva data shows, the fifth straight month of rises and at 924,500 the highest for the month since at least 2007. While a slightly slower growth rate than October’s 7.6% it suggests the turnaround in the value of goods imports seen that month, as discussed in Panjiva research of December 6, may continue.
Source: Panjiva
Among major products by volume, furnishings experienced the fastest growth rate at 6.4%, followed closely by iron and steel products (6.3%). The latter have now increased of three months after 16 straight down months, which may suggest that the effectiveness of trade cases is waning. This may have a political consequence given the prominence of steel industry executives in President-elect Trump’s advisory team.
Imports of autos and parts continued to grow for a fourth month, but at a slower rate of 1.1%. Nonetheless the auto industry will likely be at the center of any renegotiation of NAFTA given the U.S. runs a deficit in completed autos and a surplus in parts. Among other consumer goods imports of apparel fell 11.1%, the sixth straight drop and the fastest rate of decline since March. This may suggest warm-weather driven sales expectations are leading retailers to be less cautious on running inventories down. Finally, the last major month of toy imports showed a 1.2% drop overall, though as always specific lines will have done well.
Source: Panjiva
Imports from the European Union once again experienced the fastest rate of growth among the key regions with 11.3% growth on a year earlier, partly reflecting the strength of the dollar, and marking the 11th straight increase. Imports from Asia also recovered, and in particular from China where a 5.0% increase in shipments was the most rapid since February and confirms the broad based nature of China’s export recovery.
Source: Panjiva
The outlook for U.S. trade is slightly less upbeat in terms of industrial items, with the ISM import gauge falling to 50.5% from 52.5% as flagged in Panjiva research of December 1. While still indicating expansion it is a contrast to the overall manufacturing expectations. That would suggest more domestic sourcing than imports.
The outlook for consumer product imports is becoming more upbeat, however, with the University of Michigan survey reaching its highest since January 2015 according to Bloomberg. With 92% of imports normally completed by the end of November, imports year-to-date suggest that total seaborne import growth in 2016 will reach 2.1%, the highest implied rate since May.
Source: Panjiva
This research was first published in the Panjiva Daily, which features global trade news and data-driven insights and is free for all Panjiva subscribers. To find out more email sales@panjiva.com.
]]>Worldwide PC shipments were down 3.9% on a year earlier in the third quarter according to IDC. Trade data for exports from China suggest little has changed in the beginning of the fourth quarter. Panjiva data shows that total exports fell 11.8% in the month of October, and by 11.9% over the three months to October 31 on a year earlier.
The underperformance in October was led by stand-alone PC systems, which fell 46.7% in the month of October and 18.8% in the three months. This may be because consumer demand continues to shift to all-in-ones, which saw a 2% growth in the three month period despite having fallen 8.5% in October alone.
The best performing, but still contracting, segment was servers, which fell just 3.1% in October but are up 3.7% over the three months. These latter two however couldn’t offset weakness from laptops. These accounted for 82.0% of exports during the month, and fell 10.3% in the month and by 13.9% over the three months after a particularly weak September.
Source: Panjiva
Laptops may be facing a number of negative trends. In developed markets this may be due to a trend towards detachables, which are classified as tablets, at the lower end and gaming consoles at the higher end. A resulting fall in average selling prices may be behind the drop in U.S. bound shipments, down 5.8%, despite a rebound in shipments shown in Panjiva research of November 14. Among other regions exports to the EU were the weakest with a 17.6% decline.
Source: Panjiva
Product cycles matter. Among the major shippers the best performing was Inventec, with a 22.8% jump in October and 5.8% for the three months to October 31 on a year earlier. This may reflect its (delayed) shipments of Chromebooks for Xiaomi.
Exports by Lenovo jumped 27.2%, and tied for fifth position with Wistron, as its Yogabook was a rare new product available earlier in the quarter. New products from Apple and Microsoft have come much later in the year. The obverse, along with supply chain shifts, may explain why shipments by largest exporter Quanta, a supplier to Apple, slid 30.4% in October on a year earlier.
Source: Panjiva
This research was first published in the Panjiva Daily, which features global trade news and data-driven insights and is free for all Panjiva subscribers. To find out more email sales@panjiva.com.
]]>Fidel Castro’s death brings a focus back to Cuba’s position in world trade. Without good quality government statistics it can be difficult to determine the country’s trade position. Panjiva’s analysis of trade with five countries, using those countries’ data, shows imports fell for five straight months through September. The country runs a monthly deficit that’s averaged $200 million a month for the past year.
Following the death of Fidel Castro the future of Cuba’s position in world trade is likely to come into focus again. The U.S. position may, if anything, harden following comments from President-elect Trump that he would terminate the current deal if it isn’t made “better”. China’s position will likely not change given its previously stated support for the current regime. Yet, China is trying to extend its trade influence in the region, as discussed in Panjiva research of November 23.
The country does not publish regular trade statistics. However, Panjiva data for five trade partners (the U.S., China, Mexico, Colombia and government data for Brazil) shows imports fell for five straight months to September 30. In September alone it fell 21.5%.
This was led by a drop in imports from China, which accounts for 67.3% of the total across a broad range of industrial and consumer goods and fell 16.6% in September. Imports from Brazil, dominated by food and forestry products, slumped 67.6%. The latter may have been displaced by a 43.5% jump in imports from the U.S., of which 47.8% were meat products over the past year.
Source: Panjiva
The challenge for Cuba going forward lies in managing its trade deficit. It ran a monthly goods deficit of $205 million over the past 12 months when allowing for exports to the U.S., China, Mexico, Colombia and Brazil.
A 24.4% drop in the deficit in the third quarter vs. a year earlier likely reflects a later-than-normal sugar harvest as well as the aforementioned drop in imports. Cuba’s export base depends on shipments to China. These have averaged $24.6 million a month in the past year and have been dominated by sugar (69.7% year-to-date) and nickel oxides (23.1%). The remainder of the deficit is likely financed by services (particularly healthcare) and direct investment.
Source: Panjiva
This post was first published in the Panjiva Daily, which features global trade news and data-driven insights and is free for all Panjiva subscribers. To find out more email sales@panjiva.com.
]]>U.S. imports of musical instruments are seasonal, reflecting a higher proportion of annual spending around the holiday gift season than as ‘back to school’ educational items. The early part of the pre-holiday inventory build of traditional instruments by retailers does not look good, with the exception of synthesizers.
Panjiva data shows that imports of pianos (both electric and traditional) fared the worst, with a 13% drop vs. a year earlier in the three months through September 30, while guitars fell 5.5% and percussion dropped 3.2%. Electronic keyboards, or synthesizers, actually increased 5.8% on a year earlier, including a 19% increase in September alone. Aggregate spending fell 2.4% to $172 million over the three months.
Source: Panjiva
The pickup in imports of electronic keyboards should be seen in the context of two years of reduced imports after a peak in 2013 and previously in 2010. This would suggest a longer term cyclicality in purchases, perhaps reflecting product innovations as well as a replacement cycle. In shipment terms October saw a further 6% growth in imports.
The largest importer in shipment terms has been Yamaha, which has seen a 1.2% growth in imports over the past three months despite a 27.7% setback in October. Smaller producers Kawai and Casio have seen imports drop 3.1% and 30.9% respectively over the three months. The difference between the major producers and the total likely reflects increased imports of generic equipment for rebranding once in the U.S.
Source: Panjiva
Encouragingly though, retailers are showing an increased interest in music related gifts outside traditional instruments. Imports of karaoke equipment hit their highest since at least 2007 in October, with a 28.5% jump on a year earlier.
Panjiva’s multi-dimensional search shows many of these are being imported as toys by retailers including Toys’R’Us and Kmart. When taken alongside a 118% growth in toy pianos, it looks like electronics, including drones and videogames, will be the center of the gift giving season.
Source: Panjiva
This post was first published in the Panjiva Daily, which features global trade news and data-driven insights and is free for all Panjiva subscribers. To find out more email sales@panjiva.com.
]]>Toy imports to the U.S. normally peak in October ahead of the holiday shopping season, Panjiva data shows. The data for the month continues to suggest retailers are not expecting significant increases in purchasing by consumers – imports were 1.4% lower than a year earlier.
One area of growth has been video games, which increased 1.3% as a result of increased Xbox imports as discussed in Panjiva research of November 14. The higher price point of these vs. other toys may explain why other toy imports fell by 1.8%. That said, that is the slowest rate of decline for non-videogame toy imports since July, bringing the July through October imports to a 3.0% decline on the same period a year earlier.
Source: Panjiva
Among the major brands, Star Wars related products have seen the biggest decline. Imports dropped 56.9% on a year earlier in October, falling to sixth from first place in the rankings of major brands and bringing the four month total decline to 45.7%. While the next film in the franchise is not due until December 14, this is a few days earlier than the previous film’s release last year. This suggests retailers do not expect an rise in purchases, or have surplus inventories from earlier in the year.
While not entirely toys in the HS categorization, imports of drones have increased 87.3% on a year earlier, driven in part by substitution from digital cameras. As discussed in Panjiva research of November 10, Toys’R’Us are aggressively buying in the category and accounted for 59% of imports in October. If counted as a toy brand they would be in fourth place behind Fisher Price.
Imports of Lego products fell 27.8% in October, suggesting it is still not passed its supply chain issues, with the result it dropped one place in the rankings. Nerf has also struggled, with a 21.4% decline and also falling by one place. Success stories have included Ben 10, which jumped 64.6% in October and reached second place behind Barbie. The latter experienced an 18.9% drop in volumes – possibly due to the growth in American Girl imports – but moved to first place due to Star Wars’ problems.
Source: Panjiva
]]>U.S. seaborne import shipments jumped 5.6% in October vs. September to reach 982,400 according to Panjiva data. This was equivalent to a 7.4% growth on a year earlier, the fastest rate since February 2016 and the fourth straight month of expansion. The growth demonstrates that the longer term impact of Hurricane Matthew, flagged in Panjiva research of October 7, and Hanjin Shipping’s financial restructuring have been minimal.
Source: Panjiva
Among major product lines furnishings performed best, with a 9.9% increase in imports on a year earlier, the fourth straight rise, with consumer confidence also likely driving a 4.6% rise in auto and parts imports. The weak performance from apparel (down 0.4%) continued, though toys increased modestly (0.5%) ahead of the key holiday selling season. Among heavy industries, the 9.7% jump in steel imports was notable given the ongoing trade controversies surrounding the metal.
Source: Panjiva
At the regional level the strength of the dollar continued to drive a rise in imports from the European Union. The rate of growth on a rolling quarterly basis accelerated to 13.9% year-on-year from 11.4% in September. More important was a 10.1% growth in imports from China and Hong Kong in the month of October – the may prove a temporary effect as Chinese managers became more pessimistic about export prospects recently.
Source: Panjiva
Looking ahead to the rest of the year, normally 83.7% of U.S. seaborne imports are completed by the end of October. When combined with conditions so far this year it should be possible for imports to reach 11.08 million shipments for the full year, or 1.9% higher than a year earlier. From an industrial perspective purchasing managers, according to the most recent ISM survey, expect to increase their imports. By contrast, consumers are becoming more cautious, according to Bloomberg, so full year growth in U.S. imports should not be taken for granted.
Source: Panjiva
This post was first published in the Panjiva Daily, which features global trade news and data-driven insights and is free for all Panjiva subscribers. To find out more email sales@panjiva.com.
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The proposed merger of the container shipping and non-Japanese port assets of Mitsui OSK, Nippon Yusen KK, and Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha discussed in Panjiva research of October 31, raises questions about regulatory approvals. For example, container alliances typically have to be approved by the Federal Maritime Commission.
Looking specifically at U.S.-bound routes, the market share of the new company (‘Newco’, or perhaps MOLNYKKKK) on the basis of TEUs handled will be similar to that of CMA-CGM after its merger with Neptune Orient, Panjiva data shows. It’s growth has been similar to the market overall, suggesting the three companies have not been aggressively pursuing market share over the past three months when taken at the aggregate.
Source: Panjiva
There may be concerns about specific routes. In September the three combined handled 58.2% of Japan to U.S. west coast traffic and 67.9% of Japan to U.S. east coast traffic. The pickup in its share of Japan-based routes in August and September is understandable given Hanjin Shipping’s problems. The jump in Japan-to-East Coast routes also reflects declines in the number of voyages across all carriers despite the expansion of the Panama Canal. They also had significant shares in Hong Kong and Singapore to west coast U.S. traffic too, though the share of Singapore traffic has fallen to 21.3% from 28.6% a year ago.
Source: Panjiva
Another concern that the authorities may have is port ownership. Whilst the newco will not own ports outright, it will own significant assets at 10 of the 14 biggest ports. There will also be a significant consolidation of port assets owned in Los Angeles and Long Beach by the three. Additionally, the mix of east coast assets owned by NYK and the west coast assets of K-Line, Mitsui OSK and NYK may lead to concerns about geographic reach.
Source: Panjiva
This post was first published in the Panjiva Daily, which features global trade news and data-driven insights and is free for all Panjiva subscribers. To find out more email sales@panjiva.com.
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