#1 TPP Gone, But NAFTA Matters More (Jan 23) Comparing President Trump’s rejection of TPP to other campaign commitments.

#2 Maersk’s Alibaba Deal Could Access 699,000 Contract Market (Jan 5) Assesses the potential market size for Maersk’s LCL venture

#3 Trump Trips on Toyota Auto Facts, Canada the Actual Loser (Jan 6) The President (then-elect) tweeted against Toyota, we looked at their supply chain across NAFTA.

#4 Is Germany Next on Trump’s Target List? (Jan 31) Peter Navarro cites Germany as a currency manipulator – autos, healthcare and aerospace are exposed.

#5 Is Trump Looking In The Wrong Place? (Jan 10) Our monthly early read of trade activity showed the EU and India as bigger trade threats than China.

#6 Rush to Beat Trump, Early New Year Help Weak China Exports (Jan 13) A review of China’s December export stats suggests exporters did accelerate shipments to beat the inauguration.

#7 Trump’s Trade Hawk Takes Leisurely Flight, Until the Next Deficit (Jan 20) The updated White House website on inauguration day spilled the beans on key policies.

#8 Main Brexit Problem is EU Unity, Not U.K. Desires (Jan 17) We identify which countries need special treatment by the U.K. as it seeks a ‘hard Brexit’.

#9 Are Pharma Imports Reddy for Trump? (Jan 11) The President let rip at the pharma companies, we identified key generic drug suppliers who may be exposed.

#10 6 Shipping Industry Questions to Answer in 2017 (Jan 4) From earnings and deals, to capacity discipline and reefers, here’s what to watch.

#11 Trump’s Day 1 TPP, NAFTA Moves to be Followed by Crowded Kitchen (Jan 17) What to expect from inauguration day and beyond.

#12 Trump Racing? China Phone Exports to U.S. Jumped 40% in November (Jan 9) Chinese mobile phone exports hit a new high in November – why?

#13 Trump Trade Deficit Focus Drawn by 6% Mexican Export Surge (Jan 26) Mexico has another good (or is that bad?) month.

#14 7 Trade Deals to Track in 2017 (Jan 3) All things Trump plus SLA,  RCEP, EGA, WTO and Brexit.

#15 No Deal for Now, High Expectations for Orient Overseas in 2017 (Jan 20) Setting the non-deal in an industry revenue context

#16 Adidas Sees Little Change to Business Under Trump Trade Policy (Jan 18) Because all sportswear makers import from Asia.

#17 25 Months of Chinese PC Pain May Soon Be Over (Jan 10) PC exports fell at their slowest rate in over two years.

#18 Shipping Shuffles Forward, Analysts Hope (Jan 24) Our preview of the forthcoming shipping earnings reports.

#19 Trump and May to Stay Hand-in-Hand-in-Trade (Jan 30) Who’s most exposed to a new U.K./U.S. trade deal?

#20 Ross Needs New Import Tools to Cut Tool Imports (Jan 26) We drill into the details of the rapid growth in U.S. hand- and power-tool imports.

Panjiva Research brings  our unique data and technology to bear on global trade events, issues and concepts. It gives subscribers data-driven insights into politics, economics, logistics and industries in a concise, visual, content-rich format. You’ll also receive a daily email of the most vital information about global trade. To learn more email sales@panjiva.com or talk to a trade specialist at +1-888-902-3511.

We’ve been rather outspoken at Panjiva that manufacturing is gradually transitioning away from China. In addition to moving to other Asian countries, it will also be moving to Latin America. For North American buyers in particular, Latin America is a viable option: buyers can source closer to home, the logistics are simpler, and much of the infrastructure and expertise is already in place. In fact, according to an HSBC analysis, U.S. imports from Mexico may soon exceed U.S. imports from China.

To support this shift in global trade, we’re proud to announce that we’ve added Latin America to Panjiva’s comprehensive customs data package.

This means access to a wealth of information—more than 60 million records—that will help buyers determine if Latin America may be a good sourcing destination for their business. Through Panjiva’s existing, intuitive search platform, customers can find the names of companies that are importing and exporting, product details, FOB values, and HS codes of products. The records cover ocean freight trade data as well as air and truck shipments dating back to 2007.

We are constantly on the hunt for new data that will help make global trade more efficient and more transparent.  Last month, we announced a partnership with ThomasNet that finally put American manufacturers on Panjiva. Today, we add Latin American trade data for Chile, Colombia, Panama, Peru, and Uruguay (with more Latin American countries coming soon).  But we’re not stopping there. We’re working on the latest—and arguably greatest—data set now that we’ll be unveiling right here in the weeks ahead. Stay tuned!

Over the last several months, I’ve been asked this question by a lot of people who care about global trade. Indeed, Candidate Obama generated a fair amount of concern with statements that suggested he’d put the brakes on trade. For instance, he called the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) a “bad” trade deal, criticized the U.S.-South Korea Free Trade Agreement, and opposed the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA). For a detailed accounting of Candidate Obama’s statements on the subject of trade, visit the Council on Foreign Relations website.

Candidate Obama’s statements notwithstanding, I predict President Obama will be good for trade. Some more specific predictions:

1) President Obama will be far more pro-trade than his campaign statements would suggest

Because of the electoral college system, U.S. presidential campaigns are all about swing states — states where the electorate is evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans. For some reason, the most evenly divided states (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan) are states that have been particularly hard hit by globalization. Therefore, it’s not surprising that a candidate for president would employ anti-trade rhetoric. (Indeed, I’m surprised when candidates don’t employ anti-trade rhetoric!) With the campaign over, President Obama will be intensely focused on enacting policies that can jump-start America’s economy. Will these policies be pro-trade or anti-trade? To answer this question, I look at the economic advisers that Obama has surrounded himself with. At the top of this list: Robert Rubin, the former Goldman Sachs executive turned Clinton Treasury Secretary, who is decidedly pro-trade. In the months ahead, look at who President Obama appoints to key economic posts in order to assess whether my prediction is likely to be right or wrong.

2) President Obama will be more effective than his predecessor at facilitating new trade agreements

Over the last eight years, America’s unilateralist stance — in a number of arenas — has diminished its ability to play a constructive role on issues of concern to the global community. President Obama will put an end to America’s unilateralist stance which will likely enhance America’s ability to lead on, among other things, trade. And leadership is needed. The failure of the Doha round and the failure of governments to effectively coordinate on consumer safety issues are just two examples.

But let’s say President Obama proves effective at facilitating new trade agreements; will he be able to get them passed here in the U.S.? My prediction: yes. Republicans tend to support free trade, while Democrats need some convincing. A Democratic president is far more likely to succeed in bringing enough Democrats along to ensure passage — either by including “fair trade” provisions, or via old-fashioned arm-twisting. It’s no accident that NAFTA was passed while a Democrat was in the White House.

Your thoughts?