EnThe peak season for U.S. toy imports normally started in July each year, with the month accounting for 8.8% of annual shipments in 2010 to 2016, Panjiva data shows. The peak month is October. The toy industry last year hit a point of stagnation, with July to December imports being unchanged on a year earlier at $9.03 billion following two years of double-digit growth.
Source: Panjiva
The start to the 2017 “toy year” is somewhat stronger, with seaborne shipments for July showing a 4.2% increase compared to last year. One question will be whether we see a later-than-usual peak in shipments resulting from increased use of technology in sourcing assessments. An offset will be Hanjin Shipping’s failure last year, which delayed September shipments as outlined in Panjiva research of August 7.
A further challenge for this year is that 86.1% of imports in the past 12 months have come from China. It is unlikely that the section 301 review of Chinese trade practices will lead to policy cuts this year, and it is also unlikely that President Trump will want to be characterized as a toy-tariff Grinch. However, importers may accelerate shipments just in case.
Source: Panjiva
Among the major importers Disney is off the fastest start with a 54.2% rise in seaborne volumes shipped in July, while Hasbro expanded by 24.3% and Mattel by 17.3%. However, some of the larger brands are experiencing a decline including Lego (down 28.5%), Nerf (15.0% lower) and Star Wars (11.5% below last year). It may be too soon to rule the latter out given the “ Force Friday” release of tie-ins to the forthcoming movie “The Last Jedi” is not due until September 1.
Higher cost products are also appear to be expected to expand, with a 54.2% rise in shipments of drones, while the release of Microsoft’s Xbox One X may result in video consoles hoovering up a larger share of spending this year.
Source: Panjiva
