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Q3’21 Outlook: The fallout from pandemic planning and trade policy rivalry

Brexit 174 Cons. Discr. - Autos 1108 ESG 59 Global 1354 Health Care 342 Materials - Metals/Mining 706 Metals - Aluminum 225 Metals - Steel 478 Outlook 89 Tariffs 1765 Trade Balance 921 Trade Deals 973 USMCA 450 WTO 113

The impact of international trade policy on global supply chains in the second half of 2021 will depend on the implementation of vaccine provision regulations and the resolution, or otherwise, of long-standing trade rivalries. Global trade is recovering rapidly with growth in exports from 27 countries in May 2021 versus May 2019 of 19.6% while U.S. seaborne imports climbed by 18.7% in June 2021 versus June 2019. Continued expansion will depend on the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines. The completion of an 80 million dose export plan by the Biden administration adds some credibility to plans b...

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