EnThe 17th round of talks on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) will be held this week in Kobe, according to Japan’s METI. While often characterized as a Sino-centric TPP, the RCEP is structured as a deal including ASEAN and countries with which it has free trade deals including China, Japan, India, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.
Talks have been ongoing since 2012, and while a completion is possible this year there is the potential complication of China’s National Congress in October. That may slow progress on a deal as the government becomes more internally-focussed, as discussed in Panjiva research of January 3.
Putting aside the geopolitics, China has a strong economic incentive to promote a deal. Its exports to 10 of the 15 RCEP participants fell in, Panjiva data shows. These include Japan (exports to which fell 4.1%) and South Korea (4.9% lower), the two largest other countries by total trade. Additionally, four countries with which it has a deficit saw exports fall and imports rise. By scale of trade these were Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore and Indonesia.
Source: Panjiva
