U.S. Trade Deficit Likely Buoyed Up By Ocean Freight Imbalance in April

Trade Balance 910 U.S. 5046

The U.S. advance trade deficit for April, scheduled to be published on May 30, may show a marked year over year increase. Panjiva’s analysis of seafreight data shows exports from eight major ports fell 3.6% year over year, while imports climbed 4.5% across all ports. While export price inflation outstripped import price deflation that still yields a “signal” for a 3.3% drop in exports and 3.4% rise in imports when adding shipments to inflation. Given the value of imports is 1.5x that of exports there will need to be a marked swing in air- and land-freight to avoid a second monthly year-o...

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