2020 Outlook: Trade War in Waiting – U.S.-EU Relations

Cons. Discr. - Autos 921 Consumer Staples 590 Energy - Conventional 374 Energy - Natural Gas 122 European Union 629 France 139 Germany 209 Industrials - Aero/Defense 168 Industrials - Capital Goods 440 Materials - Metals/Mining 616 Metals - Aluminum 191 Metals - Steel 428 Outlook 66 Tariffs 1614 Trade Balance 848 U.S. 4478

A worsening of trade relations between the U.S. and EU could be the defining factor for global trade policy in 2020. Talks that started in July 2018 made little progress ahead of the arrival of a new European Commission as well as because of threatened, but not implemented, U.S. automotive tariffs. The EU Trade Commission, Phil Hogan, is looking for a “reset” in trade relations at meetings in mid-January, specifically including existing U.S. tariffs. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer meanwhile has identified “basic trade problems” with the EU. The U.S. will also focus on its tr...

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