EnGlobally, business managers expect their export orders to expand in the coming months. There is a divergence, however, in the direction of that optimism. Businesses in China, surveyed by CFLP, returned to a positive outlook (51.3% net positive, where 50% indicates an expansion in orders expected) for the first time since December. The survey was carried out at around the same time as the U.S. outlined a package of potential trade restricting measures – as outlined in Panjiva research of March 26 – for the technology and machinery industries, but after the announcement of duties on metals.
Source: Panjiva
American managers by contrast may be expecting a more significant retaliation from China than that initially launched in response to those metals tariffs. The ISM survey showed export sentiment remained positive but fell to 59.8% from 62.8% a month earlier. One respondent referred to “panic buying” of metals. A similar pattern was seen for both the import measure and the broader manufacturing activity index. Import expectations (59.7%) remain above exports, suggesting a risk of a continued expansion in the trade deficit. That in turn could lead to further protectionism.
Source: Panjiva
With European managers remaining positive, but with France and Germany having become less positive recently, a continued expansion in global trade is likely though that sentiment could become more fragile as trade conflicts between China and the U.S. continue to escalate.
Source: Panjiva
