Supply Chain Research

The U.S. trade deficit hit a 19 month low in September, including a 2.1% drop in goods imports as discussed in Panjiva research of October 26. In monetary terms weak exports by Canada and average prices were the drivers, but what of physical cargo handling?

Seaborne freight increased 1.6% nationally, Panjiva data shows, with ports in the southeast doing the best. A 7.6% increase in imports for that region was led by Savannah’s 14.2% improvement, and likely includes the impact of increased shipments through the Panama Canal. The southeast performance was partly offset by a 1.3% drop in cargoes imported into California, reflecting Long Beach’s reduced activity.

Lower panel represents all ports, upper panel categories follow PCCI regions and factor in top 20 ports nationally. Source: Panjiva

Airfreight volumes slipped 1.4% on a month earlier, the third straight monthly decline, with year over year growth reaching just 1.1%. The Panjiva Combined Cargo Index for the U.S. overall includes eight airports that report traffic data earlier than others – LAX, LA Ontario, Louisville, Miami, Chicago O’Hare, Indianapolis, SeaTac and Portland. Here the pattern was the opposite to seafreight – Los Angeles’ traffic jumped 8.3% while Miami’s fell 5.8%. Airfreight coming into Chicago fell 1.6%, making the 11th consecutive year-over-year decline.

Early reporters include eight airports that provide international cargo data before month end Source: Panjiva

Comparing the four major regions, the strong airfreight result meant that California saw the biggest growth in its Panjiva Combined Cargo Index for September, rising 3.9%. The northwest performed worst, dropping 2.2%. The southeast region will likely struggle in October as a result of disruptions from Hurricane Matthew early in the month. As an aside, the northeast region – which lags the others due to the late reporting of the New York area airports, climbed 3.9% in August to reach its highest level ever.

Panjiva Combined Cargo Index is an average index of U.S. seaborne import shipments and international air freight.Source: Panjiva

Taken altogether the national PCCI increased 1.3% on a year earlier to 121.1 points, the fourth month in a row of increases. While 6.2% lower than August, it was the best result for a September since at least 2011 and suggests international trade remains healthy. Whether it remains so will be a function of: further weather or corporate disruptions; the impact of the elections on policy; and whether American managers’ optimistic outlook proves more accurate than the more cautious stance being taken elsewhere.

Panjiva Combined Cargo Index is an average index of U.S. seaborne import shipments and total international freight handled by eight U.S. airports. Final version includes a further nine airports that report after the end of the following month. Source: Panjiva