Supply Chain Research

U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross has indicated that elements of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal could be incorporated into a revised NAFTA deal, Bloomberg reports. That follows recent comments by Secretary Ross that he would prefer the result to be bilateral deals that “match and are symmetrical”.

A final position paper from the administration on its plans for negotiations has yet to emerge. That is required for 90 days of consultation with Congress before negotiations can begin under TPA rules, as outlined in Panjiva research of April 26. From a timing perspective even if notice is served today talks cannot start until after the Senate recess at the end of July. The administration has also indicated that final approval of USTR-nominee Robert Lighthizer is also needed before talks can start.

In any event, striking two bilateral deals with balanced structures looks challenging. Panjiva analysis of the top 50 export lines of Canada, Mexico and the U.S. shows likely “cares” more about agriculture, raw materials and aerospace exports to the U.S. Mexico meanwhile is more exposed to manufacturing, particularly with American parts, and autos.

CLICK CHART FOR HIGH RESOLUTION VERSION Chart is based on top 50 exports by HS code, for 2016, for the U.S., Canada and Mexico based on U.S. and Mexico data. Red represents highest proportion of total exports, green the lowest while blank cells indicate no position in the top 50. Red box highlights beer and tequila exports.Source: Panjiva