The U.S. International Trade Commission will hold a hearing on August 15 into the section 201 “safeguarding” review of the solar power equipment industry. The case, brought in April by bankrupt manufacturer Suniva, could result in President Donald Trump having considerable latitude to act in applying tariffs or quotas in the industry. It is the first of two cases, the other being in aerospace, and will give a good sign of how hawkish the administration is willing to be in practice.

An initial report from the ITC has already identified Malaysia, China and South Korea, as being major drivers of the $1 billion of losses U.S. manufacturers have sustained in the past five years, manufacturer SolarWorld reports.

The case is tracking a target that is already shrinking. Panjiva data shows U.S. imports of the products covered by the case fell 63.7% on a year earlier in the second quarter in dollar terms. That included a 15.4% fall in the units imported, partly reflecting concerns by installers about the sustainability of green-technology support from the Trump administration’s energy policy.

It is worth noting, however, that China only accounted for 1.4% of imports by dollar value, vs. 33.6% in the first quarter of 2014. The case is more likely to focus, therefore on Malaysia (39.4% from 25.3%) and South Korea (20.0% from 1.6%). There has also been a marked drop in average unit prices, by 57.3%. It is that component the case will likely focus on.

Upper panel segments dollar value of U.S. imports of crystalline silicon PV cells by country of origin on left hand axis. Right hand shows three month trailing average value per unit. Lower panel compares change in price over past three months to change in volume. Source: Panjiva

The most likely target for the case will be Hanwha Q-Cells. Not only was it the largest shipper in the three months to July 31, accounting for 29.5% of seaborne shipments, it also ships 54.5% from South Korea and 37.5% from Malaysia. Finally it has also expanded its shipments by 42.6% in the past three months on a year earlier. Other targets may include Trina Solar, which was 18.1% of the total and makes significant use of Vietnam (56.9% of its total shipment) though it has cut shipments by 48.3%.

U.S. imports of solar energy equipment segmented by company name including known subsidiaries Source: Panjiva

While the impact on China-based manufacturers should be minimal given the low proportion of exports the U.S. accounts for, they will instead face extra competition for sales elsewhere in the world from displaced volumes. Exports already fell by 15.4% on a year earlier in June, the 15th straight decline, with India being the only major market that saw growth. It accounted for 20.7% of exports in the past quarter, and was the largest market for major manufacturers including Trina Solar and Solarfun

Chart shows Chinese exports of solar panels and modules, segmented by destination. Lower panel shows change in total. Source: Panjiva