EnContainer-lines operating on U.S.-inbound routes had a solid end to 2017 with a 5.8% rise in container handling in December to reach 2.24 million TEUs for the month, Panjiva data shows. That resulted in a 5.1% increase for the full year to 26.8 million TEUs. Among the majors MSC was was the laggard with growth of just 0.7% in December. It appears to have lost out to both Asian specialist shippers (COSCO Shipping was 9.8% higher) and also to European peers CMA-CGM (26.3% better) and Hapag-Lloyd (10.4% above a year earlier).
Source: Panjiva
Hapag-Lloyd’s performance also put it ahead of Maersk as the number two shipper by market share. That will prove short lived however once Maersk completes the post-merger integration of Hamburg Sud. The deal should have a minimal impact on the combined company’s market share due to the low regulatory hurdles, as outlined in Panjiva research of January 3.
Once the current round of consolidation is completed MSC will remain number one, with COSCO Shipping number two, CMA-CGM (with NOL fully consolidated) number three and Maersk number four and of Hapag-Lloyd.
Source: Panjiva
That doesn’t mean the process of consolidation is over of course. Maersk COO Søren Toft has stated that the current 60% share of the big five liners (based on global fleet capacity) could “be quite a bit higher” in the future according to a Handelsblatt interview. That likely means the second-tier operators could be acquired, though there is also the (remote) prospect of a full merger of the members of one of the major alliances.
In the meantime it is likely that the larger operators will continue to add market share organically at the expense of smaller shippers. The top 10 container-lines had a market share of 46.4% for 2017 as a whole vs. 44.4% in 2016. They may choose to pressure the small players further before acquiring them, though that could be damaging to profitability in the first quarter.
Source: Panjiva
Panjiva analysis of the top 20 container-lines’ lane-by-lane operations shows Hyundai Merchant Marine and ZIM are probably the two most logical targets for geographic coverage. Hyundai MM would bring a number one position in South Korea – U.S. routes, which could fill a gap for THE Alliance (Hapag-Lloyd and ONE) though that would be complicated by its existing arrangements with 2M (Maersk and MSC) and SM Line.
In the case of ZIM it could add heft to Ocean’s European operations as well as other niche routes when added to CMA-CGM’s European lines. In either case regulatory reviews, and of course shareholders’ concerns, would need to be addressed.
Source: Panjiva
