Drinks maker Diageo has forecast organic revenue growth of 4% to 6% for the current fiscal year, but has cautioned “we would not be immune from significant changes to global trade policy and continue to monitor this closely” Ivan Menezes CEO. That may relate to a mixture of risks from a no-deal Brexit as well as worsening trade relations between the U.S. and EU. 

As outlined in Panjiva’s research of Aug. 19 the latter could be triggered in the near-term by World Trade Organization-approved tariffs relating to aerospace subsidies and in November by U.S. section 232 tariffs on the automotive sector.

The U.S. is central to Diageo’s growth. Panjiva’s analysis of S&P Global Market Intelligence data shows shows North America accounted for 34.7% of Diageo’s revenues 12 months to Jun. 30. They grew by 8.8% year over year in 1H, compared to growth in Asia of 7.1% and in the rest of the world by 2.8%.

Chart segments change in Diageo revenues by origin. Calculations based on S&P Global Market Intelligence data.  Source: Panjiva

Panjiva data shows Diageo may already be facing a slowdown in shipments to the U.S. Total seaborne imports associated with the company fell by 1.0% year over year in the three months to Aug. 31. At the product leave a 13.4% surge in shipments of beer, including Guiness and Harp, and a 2.8% rise in whiskey brands such as Johnnie Walker has been offset by a 21.4% slide in other spirits and including Ciroc vodka and Captain Morgan rum.

Chart segments U.S. seaborne imports associated with Diageo by product on a monthly and three-month average basis.  Source: Panjiva

From a geographic perspective Europe accounts for 92.3% of shipments to the U.S. in the 12 months to Aug. 31, with only the firm’s rum and tequila brands being sourced significantly from outside Europe.

Chart segments U.S. seaborne imports associated with Diageo by product and origin in the 12 months to Aug. 31, denominated in TEUs.  Source: Panjiva