Are Lemons the Canary of Trump Trade Negotiations? — Panjiva
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Supply Chain Research

Are Lemons the Canary of Trump Trade Negotiations?

Ags - Fruit/Veg 134 Argentina 57 Consumer Staples 764 Mexico 887 Tariffs 1801 Trade Deals 1000 U.S. 5325 USMCA 456

In an arcane piece of trade regulation the new administration of President Trump has put a hold on regulations allowing the import of lemons from Argentina, Bloomberg reports. While carried out by the USDA, this is likely part of the broader review of the Generalized System of Preferences. This is one of the more complex early areas of trade policy the administration faces, as discussed in Panjiva research of December 30, but not one that has been widely discussed so far.

Decisions made regarding the GSP may provide the Trump administration with leverage in other negotiations such as that of NAFTA. For example, Mexico is the largest supplier of lemons to the U.S., Panjiva data shows, with $398 million of the fruit shipped, and likely increased by over 4.0% in 2016 vs. 2015. Allowing Argentine imports would damage Mexican interests.

SWEET YEAR FOR MEXICAN LEMONS

Calculations based on U.S. volume data through November 30, with December based on U.S. seaborne and Mexican truck export data Source: Panjiva

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