Supply Chain Research

The office of the U.S. Trade Representative has published its annual report and overview of the President’s trade agenda. This is an outline document currently as USTR nominee Robert Lighthizer has yet to be confirmed. A large part of the document relates to sovereignty of trade policy, and essentially states that WTO rulings against the U.S. probably won’t be acted upon.

The U.S. has been a heavy ‘user’ of WTO complaints. Panjiva analysis of WTO filings shows 47% of the 522 disputes initiated since 1995 have either been by, or about the U.S. The U.S. has been a net receiver of complaints, however, having been subject to 10% more complaints than it has made.

Calculations based on WTO dispute settlement data. Lines indicate cumulative complaints since 1995, bars the complaints per year. Right hand axis indicates proportion of all WTO disputes involving U.S. as complainant or complainer. Source: Panjiva

In terms of specific powers there is reference to use of Section 201 and 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. These give the President powers to act, and come alongside reference to non-market activities such as currency manipulation. As highlighted in Panjiva research of February 23, a report of currency manipulation is due in April. Notably the document also references a desire to expand exports, which has been lacking in official commentary since Commerce Secretary Ross outlined it as a priority in December.

With regards to trade deal, the KORUS deal with South Korea is mentioned in section on deals to be renegotiated having not been extensively discussed so far. Panjiva’s analysis of the top 200 U.S. export and import lines with South Korea shows the largest sensitivity for South Korea are in auto exports (20.8% of all exports in 2016) and for the U.S. it is aerospace (8.3%).

Aside from that there are complex webs of supplier / customer relations – for example 4.9% of U.S. exports to South Korea are semiconductors, while 5.1% of South Korean exports are phones. Additionally, U.S. exports are a lot more diverse than those from South Korea – its top 20 exports account for 37.4% of the total vs. 53.9% for South Korea. When it comes to negotiations, then, South Korea has a few major pain points to defend, whereas the U.S. has many areas – particularly in agriculture – to defend.

Chart shows top 200 export lines for U.S. and South Korea to each other, segmented by HS code. South Korean exports for 8703.23 (15.6%) and 8703.24 (5.13%) and U.S. export 8800 (8.29%) excluded for clarity. Source: Panjiva