EnThe process Senate approval for USTR-nominee Robert Lighthizer could take a step closer after Senator Mitch McConnell filed a cloture motion. The motion, set to be voted on May 10 could allow a final vote to take place on May 11. Approval matters as the White House has previously indicated it is a required step in renegotiating NAFTA, as outlined in Panjiva research of April 26. However, passage of the motion is far from guaranteed – Senator John McCain has indicated there “some questions I would like answered, the Wall Street Journal reports.
Should further delays occur, President Donald Trump has three options. One would simply be to wait. That would be complicated by the arrival of five reports on trade commissioned by the President: the “section 232” reviews of steel and aluminum; the Omnibus report on the trade deficit; the impact of trade deals on “ Buy American” policies; and the “ performance review” of trade deals. These would all become inputs into the period of Congressional consultation.
A second option would be to simply pull out of NAFTA and pursue new deals. The President can do this unilaterally, but has recently stepped back from doing so.
The third is to proceed with negotiations without consultation with Congress. That would save up problems for later, however. The new deal would not be eligible for a fast-track vote under Trade Promotion Authority and could be “unpicked” by Congress before its passage. That could lead to delays that push approval close to the U.S. midterm elections.
Continued delays do not work in Mexico’s favor given the Trump administration’s focus on the trade deficit. Panjiva analysis of the U.S. goods deficit net of energy (ie excluding the balance of U.S. energy exports and imports) shows the balance with Mexico hit a new high in March. While trade with Canada, excluding energy, is in surplus that surplus had been steadily narrowing until March.
Source: Panjiva
